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Message from the Director

The ESRI Celebrates its Golden Jubilee!

Frances Ruane, Director, ESRI

This year the ESRI is very proudly celebrating its 50^th anniversary - a half century of providing evidence for policy making in Ireland and contributing to our overall understanding of Ireland’s economy and society. This major anniversary is providing the Institute with an opportunity to review its activities and to mark the occasion of its founding with a range of events. Anniversary celebrations so far include: Reception with the President of Ireland, Mrs Mary McAleese on 19 January; a conference on climate change on 18 February; a special Geary lecture in sociology, presented by ESRI alumnus Professor Richard Breen, Yale University on 11 March, a seminar on the issues of poverty and deprivation in a European context on 1 June, a research conference on the subject of Equality in Dublin Castle on 23 June, and a presentation to the Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan TD on 24 June. RTE Archives marked the occasion by two programmes which covered interviews with the Institute’s founding Director, Dr Roy Geary (see programmes on 21 and 28 March)

Future events to mark the Institute’s first fifty years include the Budget Perspectives Conference on 12 October, a conference on Resource Allocation and Financing in the Health Sector in October (date to be confirmed), a conference on Higher Education Policy: Evidence from Ireland and Europe (16 November), and the second Geary Lecture by Professor Canice Prendergast (University of Chicago) on 25 November.

Challenges for the Irish economy

Over a period of two years the Irish economy has moved from high rates of growth into a major recession, from which it is now beginning to emerge. It has suffered a more severe downturn than other OECD countries, primarily because of the strong contraction in the construction sector.

To return to growth, Ireland needs to regain fiscal stability and competitiveness, and to stabilize its financial sector. To ensure social harmony during this process of major structural adjustment, we must also be careful to explain the arguments for policy actions and to implement policies that are seen to be fair as well as effective. Furthermore, we need to build long-term environmental sustainability into the new policies we craft.

Current ESRI Research

There is a strong focus in current ESRI research on the recession. The most recent review and short-term forecast for the economy is published in the Quarterly Economic Commentary. This suggests that a return to growth is likely in the latter part of 2010.

Research on the medium term situation has reviewed the macroeconomic context for a sustainable recovery, based on exploring the macroeconomic behaviour of the Irish economy. A research paper, Recovery Scenarios for Ireland: An Update, was published in July 2010. In the context of a synchronized global recovery, the turn-around for Ireland will depend crucially on Ireland's regaining competitiveness, flexibility in Irish labour markets supported by active labour market policies, credible fiscal policies and Ireland's relationship with its main trading partners through the International Transmission of Business Cycles.

ESRI labour market and migration researchers presented work at a policy conference on the labour market in recession. Researchers have also inputted into the Commission on Taxation, drawing on existing programmes of research on energy, the environment, and the macro economy. The Institute provided the Commission with analysis of the distribution effects of different proposals using its tax-benefit (SWITCH) model. Training on the use of this model has also been provided to staff members in the Departments of Finance and Social Protection, to assist them in exploring distributional issues associated with tax and welfare changes. The SWITCH model will be used in research to be presented at the ESRI/FFS pre-budget Conference on 12 October.

ESRI research on health fed into the Expert Group on Resource Allocation and Financing in the Health Sector, established in April 2009 by the Minister for Health and Children. The Group reported on 9 July 2010, and the ESRI Evidence Report (Vol. 1 and Vol. 2) was published the same day. This report built in part on a major research project on health demographics. Research on education is providing evidence to increase the effectiveness, efficiency and equity of different elements of government spending on education. A conference on the findings from the first wave of the Growing up in Ireland survey of the 9-year old cohort was held at Dublin Castle on 7 December 2009, and the Anonymised Microdata File (AMF) from the first Wave is now available from the Irish Social Science Data Archive (ISSDA). The second major conference on the findings will be held on 29 November 2010.

The Institute has recently established a research bulletin series which provides short summaries of work published by ESRI staff and overviews of thematic areas covered by ESRI programmes of research.

The need for the ESRI’s research has never been greater. In focusing on policy-relevant research issues, the ESRI is continuing a tradition that now stretches back over 50 years. I am confident that the research activities and commentary by our research teams will continue to help government, business organisations and households to understand better the implications of this sudden change in our fortunes and the difficult decisions we must take to get on the road to economic recovery.