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Latest permanent tsb/ESRI House Price Index

20/01/2010


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Permanent TSB/ESRI House Price Index - end of year figures

Permanent tsb/ESRI publish latest House Price Index,

*           Average national house prices down 18.5% in 2009

*           Average national prices now at April 2003 levels

*           31.5% decrease since peak in February 2007

Average national house prices in Ireland fell by 18.5% in 2009 according to the permanent tsb / ESRI House Price Index end of year review published today.  The index also reveals that prices [average national] declined 3.6% in December.  This compares to reductions in November (-3.1%), October (-1.8%) and September 2009 (-1.1%).

The full year decline of 18.5% compares to a reduction of 9.1% in 2008.  The average price for a house nationally in December 2009 was EUR 213,183, compared with EUR 261,573 in December 2008 and a peak of EUR 311,078 in February 2007.  National prices have fallen 31.5% since this price peak.

Commenting on the results, Niall O'Grady, General Manager Business Strategy, permanent tsb said; "2009 was a horrendous year for the Irish housing market with a combination of shattered confidence, significant oversupply and a weakening economy combining in a vicious circle.  The figures deteriorated as the year progressed with an 8.5% reduction in average prices in quarter 4 - more that twice the pace of decline of any other quarter since the fall commenced.  The pessimist will say there's worse to come.  The optimist will argue that affordability has improved so much that things will stabilise soon.  But the realist will admit we'll have to wait and see."

Dublin V Rest of Country 

Dublin house prices fell by 4.3% in December while there was a reduction of 2.5% for houses outside Dublin.  In November the relative price changes were -0.4% and -2.6%.  In 2009 House prices were reduced by 20.6% and 15.3% in Dublin and Outside Dublin respectively.  The equivalent rates in 2008 were reductions of 11.7% and 10.2% respectively.

The average price for a house in Dublin and outside Dublin in December 2009 was EUR 278,767 and EUR 189,643 respectively. The equivalent prices in December 2008 were EUR 351,096 and EUR 223,984.

 


Editors Notes
Please note 3 Bed Semi, First Time Buyers V Second Time Buyers, New V Existing Houses and the Commuter price indices are currently not available due to the low sample size. The permanent tsb house price index is a 3 month moving average. The index is based on the agreed sale price and is calculated using data from mortgage drawdowns. Therefore a lag exists between the time the sale price is agreed and when the mortgage is drawn down.

For further information contact David Duffy on (01) 8632000 or by email to david.duffy@esri.ie.  


Special 10th Anniversary Edition of the permanent tsb / ESRI House Price Index

20/06/2006

National House Prices in Ireland have risen by an average of 14.9% for each of the last ten years according to a special edition of the permanent tsb House Price Index published today. Compiled in association with the ESRI, the index is widely regarded as the most authoritative measure of house price movements in Ireland. Today’s special edition of the index was published to mark its 10th year measuring house price changes in Ireland. Headline figures from the special 10th Anniversary Index reveal the following:

  • National house prices have increased by 270% over the past ten years – compared to a total rise of just 30% in the consumer price index.
  • The average cost of a house in 1996 was just euro75,000. Ten years later (2005) the average cost had increased to euro280,000.
  • On average national prices rose by an AVERAGE of 14.9% each year for those ten years.
  • In one year (1998) average national prices grew by a massive 30%.
  • Ten years ago the average difference between buying a house in Dublin or outside of Dublin was just euro10,000. Today that figures has grown to some euro130,000.
  • A third of the current total number of houses in Ireland (547,000 houses – known as “the housing stock”) was built in the last ten years.
  • The value of all the houses in Ireland is estimated at some euro412 billion – a four-fold increase on the figure ten years ago.
  • Rise in number of house completions each year from 33,700 (1996) to 81,000 (2005).

Speaking today, Niall O’Grady, Head of Marketing with permanent tsb said; “We have been through an extraordinary decade in the Irish housing market. For many that decade has been challenging in the extreme – particularly for those trying to get on to the property ladder. For others – including many ordinary home owners – it has brought significant opportunity and promise and for others it has been very lucrative.”

“Without doubt the dramatic price growth which has taken place over the past decade has had solid foundations; low interest rates, strongly supportive demographic trends and an outstanding employment fuelling economic performance. In isolation any of these elements would have supported a strong housing market. Together they created the circumstances which have led to the exceptional growth in prices we have become familiar with.”

“Looking forward, these different elements remain in place in the Irish market and while the era of successive years of double digit price growth are unlikely to be repeated, we strongly concur with the view that we are entering the phase of the so-called soft landing where the gains in house prices which have already been made will be consolidated and were single digit price growth is likely for a number of years to come.” [note: for this year permanent tsb continue to expect a rise in national prices of approximately 10%].

Full details of the 10th Anniversary House Price Index are available in a power point presentation from the permanent tsb website at www.permanenttsb.ie.

For further information contact Niall O’Grady, Head of Marketing Permanent tsb bank, on 087 2921998.


First Time Buyers Report

23/08/2005

20% of First Time Buyers benefit from a gift from a parent or relative to help fund their house purchases, according to new research from permanent tsb and the ESRI. The research reveals that in the case of such 'gifts', the average received is €15,000. The reseach also confirms that most people who have recently bought their first house are more comfortable with their mortgage payments than had been thought.


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