FAS/ESRI MANPOWER FORECASTING STUDIES Report No. 10, by J.J. Sexton, G. Hughes, C. Finn
This report, which contains occupational employment forecasts for 2015, is the tenth in the joint FÁS/ESRI publication series and the fifth such report presenting forecasts for broadly defined occupational groups. The main objective of this series, which involves a joint contractual arrangement between FÁS and the ESRI, is to develop an information system which can be used to provide information on the changing pattern of occupations and to identify possible variations in skill requirements across broad occupational areas of the economy.
Heretofore, the published forecasts have been of a medium-term nature, i.e. the time horizon covered did not normally extend more than about five years ahead. This report, however, breaks new ground insofar as the forecasts are long-term, covering a fifteen year time span from 2000 to 2015.
The occupational forecasts contained in this report are based on sectoral employment projections derived from the most recent ESRI Medium-Term Review (MTR), published in September 2001. These estimates, which are derived from the ESRI medium-term macro-econometric model, essentially provide the basis for the current study and determine the overall level of employment for 2015 and its disposition among broad sectors of the economy. Given the importance of the MTR material in underpinning the forecasts presented, it is considered desirable to provide a description of the 2001 Review results. This is done in Chapter II.
The analyses of future occupational employment patterns given in this Report relate mainly to the MTR “Benchmark” forecasts, which are considered to represent the most likely future scenario in a medium-term context. However, the implications of an alternative “Slow Growth” scenario, based on assumptions involving lower investment in infrastructures and higher labour costs, are also described.
Details of the methodology used in compiling the occupational forecasts, including the definitions of the occupational classifications used, are given in Chapter I.
Members of the Press are invited to attend a Press Briefing at The ESRI, on Thursday, 14 March 2002 at 11.00 a.m. Publication date will be 00.01 Friday 15 March 2002 and not before that date.
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