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FAS/ESRI EMPLOYMENT AND VACANCIES SURVEY: February 2008

Key findings of the survey for the month of February 2008:

• There was a decline in the percentage of firms reporting vacancies in the private sector to 10%, which is the lowest the economy-wide vacancy rate has been since August 2005. Year-on-year there has also been a fall in the economy-wide vacancy rate as this time last year it stood at 12%;

• This month’s decrease in economy-wide vacancies was driven by a decline in reported vacancies in both the construction and services sectors - vacancies in both of these sectors fell to 8% and 10% respectively. Compared to this time last year the vacancy rate in the construction sector has fallen by 5 percentage points, while in the services sector it has fallen by 6 percentage points;

• Reported vacancies in the industry sector increased by 2 percentage points to 15%, which is the same rate that it stood at in February 2007;

• The percentage of firms reporting vacancies in the retail sector was 9%. This is the highest the vacancy rate has been in this sector since June 2004, and it compares with a vacancy rate of 2% this time last year;

• Employers’ employment outlook improved considerably with the Net Employment Expectations indicator for all sectors rising by 12 percentage points to 1%. This indicates that the percentage of employers expecting a rise in employment levels in their firms over the coming months is 1 percentage point higher than that predicting an increase. This month’s recovery in employers’ employment outlook, which was driven by the services sector, needs to be interpreted with caution as it may be due to a monthly fluctuation in the data. This is supported by the fact that the 3-month moving average, a figure that smooths out monthly fluctuations, was -7% this month, which indicates that a higher proportion of employers expect employment levels to fall rather than rise over the coming months;

• The Net Employment Expectations indicator for the construction sector was -31%, which means that the percentage of employers anticipating a decline in employment levels in their firms over the next few months is 31 percentage points higher than that expecting an increase. The corresponding indictor figure for February 2007 was -4%, and it has been trending down for most of the year;

• Industry sector employers’ employment outlook deteriorated with their Net Employment Expectations indicator falling by 3 percentage points to -17%. This compares with a figure of -1% in February 2007;

• There was no change in retail employers’ future employment prospects, while there was a substantial improvement in the services sector. Their Net Employment Expectations indicator increased by 21 percentage points to 11%. However, care needs to be exercised in placing too much emphasis on this improvement as it may be due to a fluctuation in this month’s data;

• The most frequently reported difficult-to-fill vacancies in each sector were:

Construction: Quantity surveyors
Industry: General operatives, sales personnel and engineers
Retail: Mechanics and sales staff
Services: Accounting and architecture personnel