FORTHCOMING EVENTS

"Budget Perspectives 2009" Conference

Date and Time: Tuesday 7 October 2008, 8.30 a.m. to 1 p.m.
Venue: The ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2.

The Economic and Social Research Institute and the Foundation for Fiscal Studies (FFS) are holding the eleventh "Budget Perspectives" Conference on Tuesday, 7 October 2008. The Conference will examine some of the key economic and public finance issues that need to be considered in framing policy for the forthcoming Budget and the medium term. There are four papers covering:
1. Shocks to the global economy and the policy challenges they pose;
2. The broad macroeconomic environment and public finance position;
3. Market-based instruments to support climate change policy in Ireland;
4. An evaluation of public investment in Irish sport.

This year’s conference will also include a round table discussion on the question of an appropriate General Government Deficit for 2009. Registration is free to members and is €100 for non-members. Please register by visiting our website at www.esri.ie and either booking online or downloading the booking form, or by telephoning the ESRI on 01 8632000.

Programme

08.30 Registration and coffee
09.15 Opening Address - Frances Ruane, Director, ESRI

SESSION 1: MACROECONOMICS
Chair: Frances Ruane, Director, ESRI

09.20 The Budgetary Implications of Global Shocks to Cycle and Trends in Output: Impacts of Housing, Financial and Oil Shocks
Ray Barrell and Simon Kirby (National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), London)

10.00 Macroeconomic Background for Budget 2009
Alan Barrett, Ide Kearney, Martin O'Brien and Jean Goggin�(ESRI)

10.20 Roundtable: How Big a Deficit?
Ray Barrell (NIESR, London), Joe Durkan (UCD), Patrick Honohan (TCD), Philip Lane (IIIS, TCD)

10.50 Tea/Coffee

SESSION 2: MICROECONOMICS
Chair: Dr Donal de Buitl�ir (FFS)

11.10 Mobilising Market-based Instruments for Climate Change in Ireland
Lisa Ryan (Comhar), Frank Convery (UCD), Noel Casserly, (Comhar)

11.50 Getting Out What You Put In: An Evaluation of Investment in Irish Sport
Pete Lunn (ESRI)

SESSION 3: PANEL DISCUSSION
Chair: Dr Donal de Buitl�ir (FFS)

12.30 Discussion
13.00 Close

ESRI Seminars
ESRI Seminars usually take place on Thursdays at 4 p.m. in the ESRI at Sir John Rogerson's Quay, unless stated otherwise. No booking is required. Please note that Seminar dates may change. Please check the web site regularly, at www.esri.ie.

ESRI Research Seminar "The Performance of Migrants in the UK Labour Market"
Date: 09/10/2008
Time: 4 pm
Speaker: Dr Stephen Drinkwater, University of Surrey

ESRI Research Seminar "Household Savings and Network Effects: Evidence from Vietnam"
Date: 27/11/2008
Time: 4 p.m.
Speaker: Dr Carol Newman, Dept. of Economics, Trinity College, Dublin.

ESRI Research Seminar "Social Security and Living Arrangements of Older Persons in Brazil"
Date: 04/12/2008
Time: 4 p.m.
Speaker: Dr Yumiko Kamiya, Trinity College, Dublin.

The 2008 ESRI Geary Lecture "The Entrepreneurial Society"

The 2008 Geary Lecture, "The Entrepreneurial Society", will be given by Dr David Audretsch, Distinguished Professor and the Ameritech Chair of Economic Development and Director of the Institute for Development Strategies at Indiana University; Director, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Germany; Scholar-in-Residence at the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation.

Date 13th November
Time: 4pm
Venue: The ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2.

Further detail will be available nearer the time. To reserve a place please email geary@esri.ie. For further information on Dr Audretsch visit http://www.spea.indiana.edu/ids/Staff/Audretsch.html and http://www.econ.mpg.de/english/staff/egp/audretsch.

The Geary lecture is organised each year by the ESRI and honours Dr R. C. Geary (1896 –1983), the first Director of the Institute, the most eminent Irish statistician and economist of the twentieth century. Previous lectures have been given by some of the world’s foremost scholars in the fields of economics, statistics and sociology, including a number of Nobel Prize winners.

RECENT PUBLICATIONS

Immigrants at Work: Ethnicity and Nationality in the Irish Labour Market
O’Connell, P.J., McGinnity, F., ESRI/Equality Authority, September 2008.

The Life Cycle Perspective on Social Inclusion in Ireland: An Analysis of EU-SILC
Whelan, C.T. , Maitre, B., ESRI Research Series No. 3, September 2008.

"Analysing the Effects of Tax-benefit Reforms on Income Distribution: A Decomposition Approach "
Bargain, O. (UCD), Callan, T., Journal of Economic Inequality, 2008, DOI: 10.1007/s10888-008-9101-4, Published Online 23 September 2008, The Netherlands: Springer.

"Are Ireland’s Immigrants Integrating into its Labour Market?"
Barrett, Alan and Duffy, David, International Migration Review, Vol. 42, No. 3, September 2008.

"Are Over-educated People Insiders or Outsiders? A Case of Job Search Methods and Over-Education in the UK"
Kucel, A. (Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona), Byrne, D., ESRI Working Paper No. 258, September 2008.

ESRI Annual Report (incorporating the ESRI Financial Statements for the Year ended 31 December 2007)
ESRI, September 2008.

"Full-time Students? Term-time Employment among Higher Education Students in Ireland"
Darmody, Merike, Smyth, E., Journal of Education and Work, Vol. 21 No. 4, September 2008, pp.349-362, DOI: 10.1080/13639080802361091, published online 1 September 2008, London: Routledge.

"Intra-Union Flexibility of Non-ETS Emission Reduction Obligations in the European Union"
Tol, R.S.J, ESRI Working Paper No. 256, Dublin: ESRI, September 2008.

"Measuring International Inequity Aversion"
Tol, R.S.J., ESRI Working Paper No. 254, Dublin: ESRI, September 2008.

"Metrics for Aggregating the Climate Effect of Different Emissions: A Unifying Framework"
Tol, R.S. J., Berntsen, T. K. (CICERO, Oslo), O'Neill, B. C. (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA), Fuglestvedt, J.S. (CICERO, Oslo), Shine, K. P. (University of Reading), Balkanski, Y. (LSCE-IPSL, France), Makra, L. (University of Szeged, Hungary), ESRI Working Paper No. 257, September 2008.

"Risk Aversion, Time Preference, and the Social Cost of Carbon"
Anthoff, D., Tol, R.S.J, Yohe, G.W. (Wesleyan University), ESRI Working Paper No. 252, Dublin: ESRI, September 2008.

"The Economic Impact of Climate Change"
Tol, R.S.J, ESRI Working Paper No. 255, Dublin: ESRI, September 2008.

"The Impact of Income on Private Patients' Access to GP Services in Ireland"
Nolan, A., Journal of Health Services Research Policy, Vol. 13 No. 4, October 2008, pp222-226, DOI: 10.1258/jhsrp.2008.008048, London: The Royal Society of Medicine Press Ltd.

"Using a Census to Assess the Reliability of a National Household Survey for Migration Research: The Case of Ireland"
Barrett, A., Kelly, E., ESRI Working Paper No. 253, Dublin: ESRI, September 2008.

FORTHCOMING PUBLICATIONS

(Please note that the publication dates of forthcoming publications may change. Please check the ESRI web site at www.esri.ie).

Annual Policy Report 2007: Ireland. Report for the European Commission Directorate-General Justice, Freedom and Security
Corona, J., ESRI Survey & Statistical Report Series, October 2008.

Budget Perspectives 2009
Papers from the ESRI/FFS "Budget Perspectives 2009" Conference, October 2008.

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2008
Barrett, Alan, Kearney, Ide, Goggin, Jean and O’Brien, Martin, ESRI. October 2008.

"Immigrants and Welfare Programmes: Exploring the Interactions between Immigrant Characteristics, Immigrant Welfare Dependence and Welfare Policy"
Barrett, A., McCarthy, Y. (Central Bank), Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 24, No. 3, November 2008.

"Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area"
Siedschlag, I., SUERF Studies, 2008/3, Vienna: SUERF-The European Money and Finance Forum, October 2008.

NEW PROJECTS

A Gravity Model Approach to Estimating the Expected Volume of North/South Trade

Researchers: Edgar Morgenroth, Hugh Hennessy.

Given the island location and the small relative scale of the economy on the island, significant economic benefit can be derived from forging stronger links between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. A key representation of these links is the trade intensity between the two parts of the island. This study will apply a gravity model to explore the factors driving Irish trade flows and to identify whether North/South trade flows should be higher, accounting for all factors. In doing so this analysis will update and improve upon the earlier work by Fitzsimons et al. (1999). Importantly this analysis will utilise disaggregated data for manufacturing sectors and in contrast to previous studies will consider both imports and exports separately. The aim is to incorporate data covering a sufficient time period to identify the impact of important policy issues such as the IRA ceasefire (peace dividend) or the introduction of the EURO in the Republic of Ireland.

Analysis and Measurement of Poverty and Deprivation in Ireland based on the 'Consistent Poverty' Measure developed by the ESRI and the possible Implications for Policy

Researchers: Chris Whelan, Bertrand Maitre, Brian Nolan (UCD)

The ESRI has agreed a 3-year contract with the Office for Social Inclusion to provide an annual report which will monitor and analyse the results of annual EU-SILC surveys and will include, inter alia, the following elements: 1) Commentary on the results, to include a dynamic perspective, with a particular focus on the consistent poverty measure, and their possible implications for policy; 2) More detailed thematic analysis of particular subjects or areas, specified in advance by the Minister; 3) EU and other international comparisons in relation to deprivation and poverty measurement.

Occupational Employment Forecasts 2015

Researchers: Philip O’Connell and Pete Lunn

The ESRI is engaged in a collaborative project with the training and employment authority, FAS, to produce forecasts for the structure of the Irish labour market in 2015. The forecasts will provide a detailed breakdown by occupation and gender of the expected shape of the Irish labour force in seven year’s time. The work is based on the macroeconomic forecasts of sectoral employment produced by the ESRI’s Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, which are combined with medium-term occupational trends within each sector. The subsequent report will be the 13th in an ongoing series of similar forecasts dating back to 1991. In line with the ESRI’s research strategy, this project aims to facilitate knowledge transfer from the ESRI to FAS, which is undertaking a greater proportion of the research effort compared with the previous occupational forecasts. The project is being overseen by a steering group consisting of representatives from the ESRI and FAS, as well as other policymakers

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ESRI Offices

The Economic and Social Research Institute,
Whitaker Square,
Sir John Rogerson's Quay,
Dublin 2.

Tel: +353 1 8632000
Fax: +353 1 8632100
Email: admin@esri.ie
Website: www.esri.ie

The ESRI is located in Whitaker Square off Sir John Rogerson's Quay. There are pedestrian entrances from Sir John Rogerson's Quay (beside O2), Cardiff Lane (beside Quality Hotel) and Hanover Street East. There is on-street disk parking in the streets around Whitaker Square. The nearest public car park is at Grand Canal Square. Link to map.