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"Irish TIMES" Phase 2

Researchers

FitzGerald,John / Tol,Richard S J / di Cosmo,Valeria

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has developed an energy systems model, Irish TIMES in collaboration with University College Cork (UCC) over the period 2009 –2011. This research project was supported by the EPA (with co-funding from SEAI) under the
Climate Change Research Programme. Irish TIMES Phase 2 involves UCC (Lead), the ESRI, Teagasc and UCD and will further develop the Irish TIMES model significantly improving the modelling capability in a number of key areas, with a particular focus on -
1. representing behavioural measures by developing Irish TIMES ED (elastic demand),
2. soft linking Irish TIMES with PLEXOS_IE to improve the characterisation of variable renewable electricity generation,
3. soft linking Irish TIMES with FAPRI Ireland and FLAGGS to include agricultural modelling activity and developing more complete (covering 98% of GHG emissions) climate change mitigation scenarios
4. integrating Irish TIMES within the Pan European TIMES model to improve the representation of energy flows into and out of Ireland within an EU context.
These four elements are critical to increasing the robustness and extent of the results to develop economy wide emissions reduction scenarios and calculate the associated costs.
The core outputs from this project will be an enhanced Irish TIMES model that will work in parallel with ESRI 2050 macro model, FAPRI Ireland, PLEXOS Ireland and FLAGGS, policy relevant results from scenario analyses and a suite of research outputs in the form of peer reviewed journal papers and conference papers and reports to EPA, SEI and TASG and a scenario tool for policy makers.

'Trends in Socio-Economic Inequalities in Mortality in Ireland 1986-2006’

Researchers

Layte,Richard / Nolan,Anne

Richard Layte and Anne Nolan have been awarded a three year Health Research Award by the Health Research Board (2011-2014) to investigate trends in social class mortality differentials between 1986 and 2006. The presence of pronounced inequalities in mortality and life expectancy across income, education and social class groups is now well established both in Ireland and internationally. Analyses of Irish data from the 1980s and 1990s show that Irish men in unskilled manual jobs had a mortality rate almost three times higher than men in higher professional occupations. Unfortunately, the most recent year for which information on socio-economic inequalities in mortality have been analysed is 1996 and we have no research on what happened over the period of the ‘Celtic Tiger’. Ireland’s overall mortality rate had been falling steadily for a number of decades before 1996 but the rate of reduction accelerated significantly around 1999. Research suggests that a large proportion of this abrupt change in mortality can be explained by significantly reduced mortality from circulatory diseases, particularly during the winter months among older Irish people and that this may have be been influenced by the introduction of free primary care for the over 70s in 2001 in tandem with changes in the pattern of prescribing of cardiovascular medicines by general practitioners. It is not known what impact this change in circulatory mortality patterns had on socio-economic inequalities in mortality but research carried out on mortality rates in other European countries would suggest that the decrease in death rates due to cardiovascular diseases may well have increased inequalities. Methodological problems have hindered past research on mortality differentials. This project will develop solutions to these problems and will carry out research on trends in mortality differentials between 1986 and 2006 and variations in trends by cause and geographic location. Only by understanding recent trends will we gain insight into the causes of mortality differentials in Ireland and develop interventions to improve the health and longevity of all social groups..

A Study of the Impact of Service Sector Innovation and Internationalisation on Growth and Productivity (SERVICEGAP)

Researchers

Siedschlag,Iulia / Ruane,Frances / Fitz Gerald,John / Haller,Stefanie / Zhang,Xiaoheng / McQuinn,John

The performance of service industries has come to the forefront of research and policy debate on Europe’s comparative economic performance. While there is a vast literature on the importance of service industries in understanding aggregate economic growth, to date there still remains a lack of solid empirical evidence to delineate the main channels through which services affect growth and their quantitative importance. This research project will provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of recent trends and developments in service industries and their contribution to economic growth in Europe in comparison to other industrialised countries such as the US. The analysis will focus on three research areas:

• Productivity and its drivers in service industries
• Firm strategies in the knowledge-based economy
• Internationalisation of service industries and growth

The results of this research will advance the knowledge base that underpins the formulation and implementation measures fostering growth-enhancing investment in knowledge and human capital in service industries and service functions in other sectors. They will also enhance the understanding of business potentials in the service sector by adopting a comparative perspective across industries and countries and analysing obstacles to innovation and internationalisation, with particular attention paid to knowledge-intensive services.

This research project, SERVICEGAP, with a duration of three years started on 1 March 2010 and it is funded under the EU RTD 7th Framework Programme. The ESRI research team is part of an European Research Consortium of leading universities and research institutes. Iulia Siedschlag is joint scientific co-ordinator together with Mary O’Mahony (University of Birmingham) and Irene Bertschek (Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim) and leads the research on the internationalisation of services and growth.

For more information see the SERVICEGAP website.

A Study to Measure the Impact of Product and Labour Market Regulations on Innovation and the Adoption of New Technologies (NEUJOBS)

Researchers

Siedschlag,Iulia / McQuinn,John

The objective of this research is to measure and analyse the impact of product and labour market regulations on innovation and the adoption of new technologies in the European Union countries. In particular, it will uncover the extent to which the effect of policy reforms (liberalization of entry and privatization) on innovation and the adoption of new technologies is conditioned by the distance to the global technology frontier. The research results will inform policy about the extent to which firms and industries in the European countries are likely to benefit from structural reforms such as product and labour market deregulation.

ESRI is part of an international research consortium (NEUJOBS), led by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels, undertaking this research under the EU 7th RTD Framework Programme (Grant agreement No. 266833).

Analysis and measurement of poverty and deprivation in Ireland based on the 'Consistent Poverty' measure developed by the ESRI and the possible implications for policy

Researchers

Watson,Dorothy / Maitre,Bertrand

The ESRI contract with the Social Inclusion Division of the Department of Social Protection has been extended to 2012. There are two main research areas this year. The first is a project on work and poverty, which will examine both jobless households and in-work poverty in Ireland. The second project will focus on the sharing of resources within households in order to understand the factors that may contributed to full or limited sharing of resources by household members. In 2012, the data from SILC 2010 for Ireland will be analysed, but we will also examine trends over time using the SILC data for the period 2004-2010. As part of the 2012 programme, we will also work with the social inclusion division to examine food poverty using the Irish SILC data. Professor Chris Whelan, UCD is working with the ESRI team on this project.

Analysis of Tax and Welfare Policies using SWITCH

Researchers

Callan,Tim / Keane,Claire / Walsh,John R / Savage,Michael

Several papers using the SWITCH model are planned for 2010. The first of these looks at the distributional impact of policy responses to Ireland’s fiscal crisis. (T. Callan, B. Nolan and J.R. Walsh, 2010, The Economic Crisis, Public Sector Pay and the Income Distribution, Further papers will explore the overall impact of the crisis on the income distribution and measures of income poverty, and the potential role of a “Universal Social Contribution” as pre-announced in Budget 2010.

Annual Integration Monitor

Researchers

McGinnity,Frances / O'Connell,Philip J / Quinn,Emma / Kingston,Gill

How are immigrants integrating into Irish society? The ESRI has been commissioned by the Integration Centre of Ireland to develop an integration monitor to measure the integration of immigrants in Ireland, and publish an annual monitoring report on integration. The report will consist of an overview of the main trends in migration and chapters covering integration policy and national indicators in the domains of employment, education, social inclusion and active citizenship. These indicators will allow us to assess economic, political and social equality of immigrants in Ireland. The report will also identify data gaps in each integration domain, and reflect on the implications of the findings for integration policy. The project runs from Spring 2010 to December 2013.

Causes and Consequences of Early Socio-cultural Integration Processes Among New Immigrants in Europe (SCIP)

Researchers

McGinnity,Frances / Quinn,Emma

The SCIP project studies integration trajectories of new immigrants in four European countries: Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland and Great Britain. Its substantive focus is on migrants’ socio-cultural integration. This aspect of migration has received increasing attention in public debate yet remains seriously under-researched. In particular, existing data cannot settle the question whether socio-cultural integration is a consequence or a prerequisite for migrants' structural integration (e.g. in the labour market) - and whether, how and why groups might differ in this regard. By focusing on recent arrivals, the SCIP project will study a particularly dynamic phase of the entire integration process.

In the SCIP project, two cross-national waves of survey data will be collected among groups of new immigrants that vary along a number of dimensions, including religion (Catholics versus Muslims), social status (medium to high-skill versus low-skill migrants) and political identity (EU citizens versus non-EU-citizens). In all four countries, recently arrived Poles will be sampled, along with new immigrants from Turkey (in Germany), Turkey and Morocco (in the Netherlands), and Pakistan (in the UK). Depending on the country, random samples of immigrants with a maximum duration of stay of one year will be collected, either from population registers or by using respondent driven sampling. The project runs from late 2009 to mid-2013. The SCIP project comprises a multinational team of researchers from the University of Göttingen (project leader), the University of Essex, Utrecht University and The Netherlands Institute for Social Research : the Irish team is led by Peter Muehlau of Trinity College.

Funder: NORFACE. See http://www.uni-goettingen.de/de/153339.html for further details of the project, and http://www.norface-migration.org for further details of projects funded under this funding stream..

Children’s Use of Information Technology

Researchers

Watson,Dorothy / Maitre,Bertrand

This project, funded under the Programme of Research in Communications, will examine access to information technology among 9-year old children using data from Growing up in Ireland. We will focus in particular on the how access to information technology is affected by social class and income and on whether there are social class patterns to children’s use of IT. The findings will be relevant to policy in the areas communications and education.

Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation in Ireland

Researchers

Tol,Richard SJ

The impacts of climate change on the Irish economy and society have only been partially estimated. Not knowing what is at stake, it is hard to take a firm position in European and international climate policy negotiations. We will survey Irish and international climate change impact studies to come up with a preliminary estimate of the economic impact of climate change in Ireland, and to draw a detailed agenda for further research.

Studies have shown time and again that adaptation is crucially important for the extent and even the sign of climate change impacts, and that timely and appropriate adaptation can avoid substantial damages. We will seek to translate this general wisdom into concrete recommendations for adaptation, with a particular eye on what the Irish government should do (or not do) to help the people and businesses of Ireland adapt to climate change.

Climate Cost

Researchers

Tol,Richard SJ / Anthoff,David

The objectives of the project are to fill the remaining gaps in the assessment of the full costs of climate change. These include ancillary benefits associated with mitigation policy, many of the sectoral impacts of climate change, including extreme and catastrophic events, and the costs and benefits of adaptation. The project will build on the findings of existing studies and aims to provide information at EU member state level. The project also aims to encourage cross-fertilization of research and a transfer of information between researchers in Europe, the USA, China and India. The ESRI is a partner in a consortium lead by AEA Technology in the UK. Dr. Richard Tol is the lead researcher within the ESRI with the role of updating previous estimates of the social cost of carbon. This research is funded by the European Commission under the FP7 programme.

Consumer Sentiment Index

Researchers

Duffy, David

Consumer spending is an important element of economic growth. The National Income and Expenditure Accounts (2000) show that in 2000 the value of personal consumption accounted for 49 per cent of Irish GDP. Trends in this component are therefore very important for forecasting and planning. A gap that exists at present in Ireland is a widely used indicator for consumer sentiment. This contrasts with the situation in both Europe and the US. At present the EU Commission publishes a consumer confidence indicator for Europe, and includes details of Ireland as one of the Member States. In the US, measures of consumer confidence by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board receive much attention, both domestically within the US but also internationally. Such indicators have a broader use than solely as an input to model-based forecasts. They provide some barometer of consumer sentiment and thus are an additional piece of information that may be used by those analysing, or interested in, the health of the economy. The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI index of consumer sentiment aims to fill the existing gap in information on the consumer sector. The new index uses data collected by the ESRI for its monthly Consumer Survey and will be constructed using a methodology based on international best practice.

Data Review on Future Demand for Higher Education – Meta Analysis of Existing Reports

Researchers

McGuinness,Seamus / Bergin,Adele / Kelly,Elish / McCoy,Selina / Smyth,Emer

This study, commissioned by the Higher Education Authority, will examine the key issues to be considered in assessing future demand for higher education in Ireland. This will include an examination of the assumptions underpinning the projected rise in new entrants to 2030 and analysis of the extent to which projections reflect effects related to the changes in expected earnings and the opportunity cost of education. The study will also consider the extent to which the labour market can absorb the increased flow of graduates. The implications of rising HE participation for other parts of the educational system such as further education and issues relating to the likely impact of reforms in higher education funding will also be considered.

Day Surgery in Ireland: The Development, Implementation and Evaluation of an Evidence Based and Consensus Derived Best Practice Model

Researchers

Brick,Aoife / Wiley,Miriam M / Royal College of Surgeons Team (Project Lead) / James Connolly Memorial Hospital Team

Rates of day case procedures in Ireland have seen average annual growth of 17.8% from 2003 to 2007. Of the 718,851 day patient discharges in 2007, almost 13% were classified under a surgical AR-DRG. For general surgical procedures, the rate of growth has been slower with only 10% of some procedures being conducted as day cases. There is a lack of research in this area in Ireland yet the HSE has set a target of 80% of a basket of 24 surgical procedures being conducted as day cases. Internationally there is a call for further research to better understand how to optimize day surgery to the benefit of all. This is necessary in Ireland if we are to provide research driven, people centred care in appropriate environments. The aim of this work is to achieve, through consensus and international best practice recommendations, trackable, measurable, key elements, which can be implemented, assessed and evaluated in day surgery in Ireland. It is hoped that the findings will help guide future service provision, service development, enhance patient care and contribute to improved clinical outcomes. The project is funded by the Health Research Board.

Determinants and Consequences of Skill Mismatch and Policy Implications

Researchers

McGuinness,Seamus / O'Connell,Philip J / Sloane, Peter (University of Swansea) / O’Leary, Nigel (University of Swansea) / Mavromaras, Kostas (University of Melbourne)

This research is being undertaken for the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) on the determinants and consequences of skill mismatch and policy implications. The research programme will last for four years and will involve a collaboration between researchers at the ESRI, Swansea University and The University of Melbourne. In the initial phase of the study the researchers will investigate:

1. A taxonomy of mismatch to include over and undereducation, over and underskilling, labour shortages and skills obsolescence.
2. What are the links between skill mismatch experienced at the level of the individual, the level of the firm and the economy?
3. The most appropriate approach to assessing the impacts of skill mismatch.
4. The extent to which job mismatch represents a serious concern for policy makers.

Three subsequent studies will be commissioned based on the findings and recommendations of this initial research.

DYNREG - Dynamic Regions in a Knowledge Driven Global Economy - lessons and policy implications for the EU

Researchers

Siedschlag,Iulia / Morgenroth, Edgar / Schiffbauer,Marc / O'Brien,Martin / Murphy,Gavin / Haller,Stefanie / Smith,Donal / Zhang,Xiaoheng

For more details on this project and to download working papers produced by the project partners please go to the DYNREG pages.

Economic Evaluation in Palliative Care in Ireland

Researchers

Brick,Aoife / O'Hara,Sinead / Smith,Samantha / Charles Normand (Principal Investigator, Trinity College, Dublin)

This project aims to examine evidence on the cost and cost effectiveness of alternative models (comprehensive, intermediate, limited) of palliative care in the Irish health-care system. There are two phases to the project. The first phase focuses on collating and assessing available evidence on the costs and cost effectiveness of care for people who are dying in the international and national context. The second phase focuses on comparing the costs and outcomes of alternative models of palliative care for dying patients within the Irish system. The project is ongoing and is due to report in 2013. The research team is led from Trinity College Dublin, in collaboration with the ESRI and other stakeholders, and the project is funded by The Atlantic Philanthropies.

Educational Needs of Young People in Care

Researchers

Darmody,Merike / Banks,Joanne / McMahon,Léan / Gilligan, Robbie (Children’s Research Centre, TCD) / Greene, Sheila (Children’s Research Centre, TCD)

Extensive international research on young people in care shows that they are more likely than their peers to experience educational difficulties and disadvantage. This is supported by research in Ireland indicating that young people in care suffer from a range of disadvantages which impacts on their educational progress and performance (Daly and Gilligan, 2005). However, provision for access, participation and attainment for children and young people in care has received limited attention with much of the existing research focussing on wider social care issues rather than factors specific to accessing and participating in education. To address this gap in research this study by Darmody, Banks and Gilligan and Greene, funded by the Ombudsman for Children’s Office, focuses specifically on barriers to accessing and participating in education. In so doing, it presents the perspectives of key stake holders as well as young people in care, placing the findings in the context of existing research and international best practice.

Energy demand - manufacturing

Researchers

Haller,Stefanie

The aim of this work is to estimate the elasticities of substitution between the inputs (capital, labour, energy) of manufacturing firms using the micro data provided Census of Industrial Production. The focus of the paper is then to assess the response of manufacturing sector firms’ energy use to changing prices and activity levels. A working paper describing the results should be available later in 2011.

Energy demand – modelling and forecasting

Researchers

Hyland,Marie / di Cosmo,Valeria

The first aim of the work is to estimate the determinants of the demand for electricity and other fuels in Ireland. Secondly, we are using these parameters to forecast the demand for different fuels out to 2025 in order to quantify the impact of different carbon tax scenarios on energy use.
Each year we also assist the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland in preparing its energy forecasts. We apply our energy demand model to estimate the effects of scenarios set out by the SEAI.

Energy demand – Residential

Researchers

Lyons,Seán / Nolan,Anne / di Cosmo,Valeria / Hyland,Marie / Walsh,Sharon

We assisted the Commission for Energy Regulation in preparing cost-benefit analyses of “smart” electricity and gas metering. Findings are reported here. Further research is underway on ownership and usage of appliances, the impact of different stimuli and price tariffs on household energy demand, and classification of household types by daily patterns of electricity use.

Energy Demand – Transport

Researchers

Driscoll,Áine / Lyons,Seán / Tol,Richard S J / Mariuzzo, Franco (UEA Norwich)

Using data on private car sales and model characteristics in Ireland, we plan to estimate the valuations that customers place on a range of vehicle attributes by estimating a structural market model. These may then be useful for predicting valuations for future types of vehicles such as electric cars.

Energy Efficiency

Researchers

Tol,Richard S J / Eimear Leahy

Two working papers have been issued describing two different strands of research. A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the EU 20/20/2020 Package has been undertaken and published as Working paper 367. Working paper 388 considers the Greener Homes scheme. It carries out an ex-post estimate of the cost of carbon dioxide emission reduction using administrative micro-data from the Republic of Ireland.

Energy Modelling - IDEM model of electricity system

Researchers

FitzGerald,John / Walsh,Darragh / di Cosmo,Valeria / Lyons,Seán

The IDEM electricity model covers the all-island electricity sector, modelling the dispatch of generating stations on a half hourly basis. The model continues to be developed to handle new issues which came up in the course of our research. The model has been used in a series of publications as well as in the preparation of forecasts and scenarios on energy use out to 2025. Joint work with UCC is being undertaken calibrating the IDEM model of electricity dispatch with the Plexus model. Work related to this topic can be found here, and in the ESRI Working Papers no. 334, 372 and 374.

Energy Policy

Researchers

FitzGerald,John / Lyons,Seán

This work draws on the range of other research undertaken in the Energy Policy Research Centre. ESRI Research Report 21 on the issues facing Irish Energy Policy over the coming decade was published in April 2011. In addition, a paper entitled “Does Europe Need a Comprehensive Energy Policy”was published in the journal Intereconomics in June 2011.

Equality and Discrimination in Ireland: Evidence from the QNHS Equality Module 2010.

Researchers

McGinnity,Frances / Watson,Dorothy / O'Connell,Philip J / Kelly,Elish / Kingston,Gill

The ESRI have been commissioned to conduct an analysis of equality and discrimination in Ireland using the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) Equality Module 2010. The project includes one major research report on ‘The Experience of Discrimination in Ireland’ and two supplementary papers on ‘Ethnicity and Nationality in the Irish Labour Market, and ‘People with Disabilities in the Irish Labour Market’. The main report will investigate, among other issues, the situations in which discrimination is experienced, the risk of discrimination by socio-demographic characteristics and actions taken in response to discrimination. The supplementary papers will focus more specifically on the experience of discrimination and inequality in the labour market by ethnicity/nationality and by disability status. The project builds on previous analysis of equality and discrimination using data from 2004, and selected findings will be compared between the two years. This research project is co-funded by the Equality Authority and by the European Union Programme for Employment and Social Solidarity - PROGRESS (2007-2013).

EuroDRG Project

Researchers

Wiley,Miriam M / O'Reilly,Jacqueline / McCarthy,Brian

Payment systems are fundamental to any health care system, introducing powerful incentives and challenging technical design complexities. DRG systems aim at fairly assessing the costs of patient treatment, taking into account measurable patient characteristics such as diagnosis, procedures performed etc. At the outset, this project will involve an analysis of national DRG systems and development of a methodology for trans-national analysis of key issues. The project will then proceed to develop a representative sample of inpatient data on 10-12 “care episodes” from hospitals in a number of EU countries. This European dataset will be analysed to assess the importance of structural factors such as wage levels vis-à-vis established patient variables and “medical decision variables” to explain variation in hospital costs within and between European countries. The EuroDRG Project is part of the EU Seventh Framework Programme, has an expected duration of 36 months and is lead by the Department of Health Care Management, Technische Universität, Berlin.

EUROMOD - Microsimulation Tool for Modelling the Impact of Policy Measures

Researchers

Callan,Tim / Keane,Claire / Kelly,Elish / Marguerita Lane

EUROMOD is a set of tax-benefit models for European countries, allowing for bilateral and multilateral comparisons of key issues. EUROMOD - Microsimulation  Tool for Modelling the Impact of Policy Measures  is a major development project, supported by DG-EMPL, aimed at improving and extending EUROMOD’s usefulness as a tool for policy-relevant research. The ESRI team will collaborate with the core development team in:-

  • building a database for the Irish element of EUROMOD, based on the User Data Base (UDB) of Eurostat’s EU SILC;
  • modelling Irish policies over the 2006-2009 period;
  • testing and validating a new implementation of the model software.

This will facilitate the inclusion of Ireland in comparative policy analyses based on the new EUROMOD.

European Migration Network

Researchers

Quinn, Emma / Joyce,Corona / O'Connell,Philip J / Kingston,Gill

The work of the European Migration Network (EMN) is to make available a wide range of timely, objective and comparable information on international migration for policy makers, researchers, NGOs and other practitioners, and the public across all EU member States. The aim is to deepen our understanding of the phenomenon of migration and facilitate analysis and research that will contribute to more informed planning, policies and actions in this area, and lead to more meaningful co-operation within the EU.

In May 2008 the European Migration Network was established with a permanent legal base (Council Decision 2008/381/EC). A network of operational units termed National Contact Points has been formally established, one in each EU member State. The ESRI has been designated as the official Irish Contact Point since 2003.

The initiative is jointly funded by the EU Directorate-General for Justice, Freedom and Security and the Irish Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform. 

More information on the European Migration Network.

European Union Internal Market in Electricity: Implications for Ireland

Researchers

Gorecki,Paul K

This project examines the regulatory and related issues that are likely to arise for Ireland with the implementation of the Third Package which is designed to create an internal EU electricity market.

Fuel Poverty in Ireland

Researchers

Watson,Dorothy / Maitre,Bertrand

This project, funded as part of the work of the Energy Policy Research Centre, will use SILC data for Ireland from 2004 to 2010 to examine trends in the extent of subjectively assessed fuel poverty in Ireland, relating them to changes in energy prices but also to the impact of the recession on incomes. The results will be relevant to energy policy and social inclusion policy in Ireland.

Global Warming and Energy - the role of emissions trading

Researchers

Fitz Gerald,John / Tol,Richard SJ

The implications of the EU policy on emissions trading will be further analysed. The role of other measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may also be examined. What potential is there in the scheme for countries to act strategically? To what extent can taxpayers (and consumers) recover some of the value of the free permits? How will the availability of free permits affect new entry? To what extent is the size of the allocation of free permits important in affecting competition? How would an extension of the scheme to cover SMEs affect such companies?

Globalisation and Exporter Productivity in Developed Open Economies

Researchers

Ruane,Frances / Haller,Stefanie / Gleeson,Anne Marie

This project, financed by IRCHSS, explores the dynamics of the productivity performance of manufacturing exporters in Ireland, using a longitudinal micro level data set for the period 1985-2004. The specific aims of the project are (a) to uncover the productivity dynamics of Irish indigenous and foreign-owned manufacturing exporters and study these productivity differentials at sectoral and regional levels (b) to seek evidence of sectoral and regional restructuring in Irish indigenous manufacturing that may result from reallocations towards more efficient exporting firms (c) to use the dynamic productivity analysis to shed new light on the self-selection and learning-by-exporting arguments and (d) to compare exporter productivity differences when trade is regional (EU) rather than global.

To contextualise Ireland’s performance, this study will be linked to a set of country studies of exporter productivity using similar micro-level data. The results of this anlysis will be relevant to the evaluation of current and design of future industrial policies in the Irish economy.

Anne Marie Gleeson of Waterford Institute of Technology is working with the ESRI researchers on this project.

 

Growing Up in Ireland: The Irish Longitudinal Study of Children

Researchers

Layte,Richard / McCrory,Cathal

Growing Up in Ireland is a Government-funded study of children being carried out jointly by the ESRI and Trinity College Dublin. More information on the Growing Up in Ireland project. It will be examining a range of issues around the health and well-being of Irish children. Issues currently being examined by ESRI researchers Richard Layte and Cathal McCrory with Tom O'Dowd (TCD) include: 

  • a study of the relationship between chronic illness and emotional and behavioural problems among children and the role of parent-child relations. This study has been extended to examine the influence of chronic illness on educational development and the mediating role of emotional and behavioural well-being.
  • The extent of breastfeeding in early life has been shown to influence a number of child outcomes. ESRI researchers are examining whether breastfeeding in infancy influences child educational development and the mechanisms through which this may occur
  • Weight at birth has been found to be strongly related to later emotional and behavioural problems. Another study is examining the independent role of weight at birth and associated mechanisms

House Price Index

Researchers

Duffy, David

The permanent tsb/ESRI House Price Index is an electronic report published monthly. Visit the House Price Index page for further information, or contact David Duffy on (01) 8632000 or by email to david.duffy@esri.ie

The index is based on monthly mortgage sales processed by Permanent TSB and gives representative data on house prices and their movement.  A full description of the development of the index and its Methodology can be downloaded.

IDEAS Programme Vietnam - Provision of Economic Analysis and Forecastig Services

Researchers

Fitz Gerald,John / Kearney,Ide / Bergin,Adele / Conefrey,Thomas

This project will develop a practical training course in applied macro-economic forecasting to be implemented in Vietnam, and will report on outcomes to Irish Aid.

Knowledge Economy, Economic Transformations and ICT in the EU25+: Regional Dynamics in the Deployment Phase (EUICT)

Researchers

Siedschlag,Iulia / Murphy,Gavin / Fitz Gerald,John / Haller,Stefanie

This study is being carried out by the ESRI with Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration and various national and international experts. The study will develop a theoretical and empirical analysis of the consequences of ICT use and globalization on regional economies in the EU. In particular, the analysis will draw on clear and concrete examples from a sample of European regional case-studies on a number of mechanisms such as technological and knowledge spillovers, interactions and networking between firms, learning capacity, in order to illustrate the main determinants of ICT absorption and impact on economic efficiency in EU regions. Further, the case studies will highlight the emergence of new structures, and organization of economic activities related to ICT use, with a special emphasis on the role of ICT on changing nature of interactions between economic agents. Finally, the study will draw policy implications for the EU and underline possible directions for future research.

Learning from Ireland’s SSIA Experience

Researchers

Keane,Claire / Callan,Tim / Marguerita Lane

New evidence on the extent and nature of participation in the SSIA scheme has been gathered by the CSO Surveys on Income and Living Conditions (EU SILC). Analysis of these microdata can help to provide new insights into key questions regarding the SSIA scheme. This is of particular importance, because the substantial uptake of the SSIA scheme has prompted suggestions that a similar structure may be effective in boosting the coverage of private pension schemes.

This project is being grant-aided by the Foundation for Fiscal Studies, and first results from the study will be presented at an FFS research seminar.

Leaving School in Ireland: A Longitudinal Study.

Researchers

McCoy,Selina / Smyth,Emer / Banks,Joanne / Byrne,Delma

This is the first study to be conducted under the Leaving School in Ireland (LSI) programme of research. It is a major project on the post-school experiences of the cohort of young people who took part in the Post-Primary Longitudinal Study (PPLS). These young people, who were first contacted on entry to second-level education in 2002, left school in either 2007 or 2008 (depending on whether they took the Transition Year Programme).

The study commenced in late in 2009 and the research has two main components.

  1. A survey of this cohort of young people in 2010/2011, collecting information on their participation in education and training and their labour market experiences.
  2. In-depth interviews with a sample of these young people in Autumn 2011. This will allow us to explore in much greater detail the influences on young people’s post-school choices and pathways.

The study, unique in the Irish context, will allow us to address a range of central policy questions, including:

  1. How do young people make decisions about post-school options? What role do their school experiences play in their choices?
  2. Are qualifications the only thing that matters? Or do literacy skills, self-confidence and work experience acquired while at school help in accessing employment?
  3. Does second-level education prepare young people for post-school education and training, work and adult life?

For more information visit the LSI Programme page,

Literacy and Numeracy Difficulties in the Irish Workplace

Researchers

O'Connell,Philip J / McGuinness,Seamus / Kelly,Elish

The aim of the project is to assess the extent of literacy and numeracy needs among employees with low levels of educational attainment in Ireland, along with how these needs vary between population sub-groups (e.g. by gender, age, occupation, nationality) and by economic sector. The study will also provide evidence on the impact that literacy and numeracy difficulties have on both employees’ earnings and firms’ labour costs.

The study, which is funded by the National Adult Literacy Agency, will utilise data from the October 2006 National Employment Survey (NES), which is a large nationally representative survey carried out by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) to collect information on employment and earnings from both businesses and their employees. The NES contains a rich array of socio-demographic and firm-level information. In addition to this, the October 2006 NES collected data on employees training needs, along with the skills areas that employers felt that there were acute shortages in their existing workforce and the skills areas that needed upgrading.

Literacy, Numeracy and Unemployment

Researchers

O'Connell,Philip J / McGuinness,Seamus / Kelly,Elish

The objective of the project is to provide evidence on the impact that literacy/numeracy difficulties have on unemployed individuals’ likelihood of exiting unemployment to the labour market, and to assess how this impact differs among men and women and between younger and older benefit claimants. In addition, the study will investigate the impact that literacy/numeracy difficulties have on access to training and employment schemes among unemployed individuals, along with the effect that such difficulties have on the impact of labour market training programmes for the unemployed. The project will also look closely at the separate effects of age, gender and educational attainment on literacy/numeracy difficulties.

The project, which is funded by the National Adult Literacy Agency, will be based on an analysis of data that was originally collected to develop a national profiling system to accurately identify those at risk of becoming long-term unemployed. This profiling dataset, which contains a variety of socio-economic information on all individuals that become unemployed between September and December 2006, is combined with data from the Live Register and with information on participation in FÁS training and employment schemes.

Local Food Environments and Dietary Quality

Researchers

Layte,Richard / Sexton,Eithne / Lyons,Seán

There is now good evidence across a number of countries that socio-economic status is inversely related to the quality of an individual’s diet and nutrition. There is far less consistency in the findings of research on the impact of variations in the availability of food across communities differentiated by socio-economic status and the role this may play in inequalities in diet and nutrition. This study uses data from the Irish National Health and Lifestyle Survey and food retail in Ireland to examine the impact of distance to food outlets and density of shops on the diet of individuals measured by the DASH scale of cardiovascular dietary quality. Janas Harrington and Ivan Perry (UCC) aer working with ESRI researchers on this project.

Medium-term Economic Review and Outlook for Ireland

Researchers

Fitz Gerald, John / Duffy, David / Kearney, Ide / Bergin, Adele / Conefrey,Thomas

The preparation of the Medium Term Review is an on-going activity within the Macroeconomic Forecasting area in ESRI.  The Review is published every two years and is the only publication of its kind in Ireland. It has provided its worth in filling a long-standing need in Ireland by taking a detailed look at the Irish economy. It forecasts a longer term than the Quarterly Economic Commentary (QEC) (five years ahead and beyond).  The preparation of the Review is led by Professor John FitzGerald and uses the HERMES model to project the outlook for the five year horizon. Its sections include:

  • The External Envoiroment » Demographic Assumptions
  • The Central Forecast
  • Shocks and Surprises 
  •  Poilicy Implications


Modelling Pension Reforms: Building from UK Experience to Irish Policy Analysis

Researchers

Callan,Tim / Keane,Claire / Walsh,John R / Justin van de Ven (NIESR)

Some key issues in pension reform are best analysed using a dynamic microsimulation model taking account of diverse working age careers. This project will re-specify NIESR's dynamic cohort microsimulation model of savings and labour supply decisions to reflect circumstances in Ireland. This model represents current best practice in the economic analysis of decision making in the context of uncertainty. It is explicitly designed to reflect the fact that decisions regarding saving for retirement must be made well before an individual can be certain about their financial circumstances in old age. The project will recalibrate the model and apply it to a number of key policy issues in Irish pension reform.

Client: DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities DG

Multiple Inequalities: An Analysis of Census 2006 Data

Researchers

Watson,Dorothy / Russell,Helen / Quinn,Emma / Lunn,Pete

This project, commissioned by the Equality Authority, will make use of 2006 Census data to examine inequalities in education, employment and housing among those whose circumstances would be covered under several of the nine grounds governed by equality legislation. The main question is whether there is evidence of cumulative disadvantage associated with the presence of more than one of the nine criteria. The project will analyse the Census 2006 data, including the 5% sample, and report to the Equality Authority by summer 2009.

The project is part of the Equality Authority/ESRI Programme of Research on Equality and Discrimination

NCPP Workplace Study 2008

Researchers

O'Connell,Philip J / Watson,Dorothy / Russell,Helen

The ESRI, in partnership with Amárach Research, will carry out the Workplace Study 2008 on behalf of the National Centre for Partnership and Performance (NCPP). This project involves an analysis of the employment practices and workplace climate in Irish private and public sector workplaces and the extent of change since 2003 (when a similar study was carried out by the ESRI). In addition to the broad range of issues covered in the 2003 study (including workplace partnership and participation, communication, flexibility, job satisfaction, job loyalty), the 2008 study will have an increased emphasis on innovation and gather additional information on emerging issues such as work-family balance, workplace diversity and skills match. As this study is being repeated in a very different global economic context to that pertaining in 2003, the results will be crucial in informing policies to ensure that Irish workplaces are equipped to face these challenges.

The study involves a large scale survey of employees (N=5,000) and a survey of private sector firms (N=1,500) and public sector organisations (N=400). The survey will be piloted in November-December 2008, with the main fieldwork taking place in early 2009. The reports on the study will be completed in the second half of 2009.

PLATON+ - Strengthening the role that Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities have on the Development of the European Research Area

Researchers

Traistaru-Siedschlag,Iulia / Murphy,Gavin / Smith,Donal

Dr Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag is Lead Scientist for Ireland in this project that aims to foster dissemination of European research in Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities and to facilitate integration and co-ordination of research in the EU 7th RTD Framework Programme.

The project dissemination activities will include workshops, conferences, policy briefs and will address the research community, policy makers, business representatives and NGOs. ESRI is a partner in a Consortium of 12 leading European research organisations. The project, with a duration of 30 months, starts in January 2008 and is funded from the EU 7th RTD Framework Programme.

Primary school outcomes: a European study

Researchers

Smyth,Emer / McCoy,Selina / Banks,Joanne / Byrne,Delma / McMahon,Léan

This study examines the impact of primary school factors on student outcomes across a range of European countries. It is designed to inform national and European policy makers about effective practices at system (country), school and classroom level. The three year study will involve a survey of teachers and students within primary schools, focusing on practices relating to mathematics and science. The research is being carried out in Belgium (Flanders), Cyprus, Germany, the Netherlands and Slovenia, and is led by Professor Bert Creemers, an international expert in school effectiveness. As well as contributing to the comparative European study, the Irish team will focus in particular on the impact of school composition on student outcomes. The Irish part of the study is being funded by the IRCHSS under the auspices of the ESF Eurocores Programme.

Programme of Research in Communications

Researchers

Lyons,Seán / Lunn,Pete / Gorecki,Paul K / Haller,Stefanie

This programme aims to carry out research relevant to policy and regulation of the communications sector in Ireland. Research topics planned for the coming year fall within four areas: 

  • Modelling the market for broadband services in Ireland;
  • Economic and social aspects of electronic communications availability and adoption;
  • Effects of electronic communications services on company performance; and
  • Implications of behavioural economics for economic regulation and consumer protection in communications markets.

Funding is being provided by the Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources and the Commission for Communications Regulation, and the ESRI is contributing a range of technical, administrative and other resources.

Promoting Competitiveness, Productivity and Economic Growth in Ireland: Evidence and Policy Implications

Researchers

McGuinness,Seamus / O'Connell,Philip J / Kelly,Elish

The objective of the project is to provide evidence on the impact that i) workplace training and ii) vacancies, employee skills and skill shortages have on productivity in Irish enterprises and, by extension, competitiveness and economic growth.

The project, funded by a grant from the FBD, will utilise data from the National Employment Survey (NES), which is a large nationally representative survey carried out by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) to collect information on employment and earnings from both businesses and their employees, and the Census of Industrial Production, a dataset that contains information on firm level performance.

The project represents a substantial investment with significant returns in policy relevant research on the factors underpinning competitiveness.

REAL-net

Researchers

Smyth,Emer

REAL-net is a network of experts who advise the European Commission on social aspects of education and training. REAL-net will undertake the following range of activities for the European Commission:

  • Guidance and advice to the Commission through replies to ad hoc queries
  • Analytical reports for policy-makers;
  • Professional development seminars;
  • Support for Commission symposia;
  • Setting up and maintaining a website;
  • Mapping expertise;
  • Other support.

The network is co-ordinated by Professor Sally Power, University of Cardiff, and contains academics and researchers from a range of countries and with expertise on an array of educational issues. Emer Smyth is a core member of this network.

Recent Trends in Caesarean Section in Ireland

Researchers

Brick,Aoife / Layte,Richard

This project explores levels and trends in the prevalence of caesarean section delivery in Ireland between 1999 and 2007. Over this period the caesarean section rate in Ireland increased by almost one quarter. Using data from the Irish National Perinatal Reporting System and the Hospital In-Patient Enquiry scheme the project examines the contribution of maternal, birth/infant, hospital and clinical characteristics in the rise in the caesarean section rate over the period.

Renewables

Researchers

FitzGerald,John

This work uses a range of models and approaches to examine the implications of deploying renewables in the Irish electricity system. A series of papers has been published reporting on the work to date, which can be found here and in the ESRI Working Papers no. 334, 372 and 374.

Strengthening the Capacity of Pacific Developing Member Countries to Respond to Climate Change

Researchers

Tol,Richard S J

This project will estimate the economic impact of climate change on countries and territories in the Pacific, and evaluate options to adapt. Client: Asian Development Bank.

Structural Change in Cardio-vascular Mortality in Ireland 1995-2005

Researchers

O'Hara,Sinead / Layte,Richard

Deaths from diseases of the circulatory system, and the seasonality of deaths from these causes, fell sharply between 1995 and 2005 among older age groups in Ireland. This project examines whether a structural break occurred in deaths from circulatory causes in Ireland between 1995 and 2005 and whether this can be accounted for by cardiovascular prescribing during the same period controlling for weather trends.

Swimming in Ireland

Researchers

Lunn,Pete / Kelly,Elish

This project, funded by Swim Ireland, uses the 2006 Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) Sports Module and 2007-2009 Irish Sports Monitor data to examine levels of participation in swimming in Ireland and the factors that underpin it. The results will be relevant to those policy makers that are involved in encouraging sports participation in Ireland, and particularly those that are directly involved in promoting swimming. The report will be published in 2012.

The Longitudinal Analysis of Child Health and Development in Ireland

Researchers

Layte,Richard / Nolan,Anne / O'Reilly, Dermot (QUB) / McVicar, Duncan (QUB) / Lazarova, Emilya (QUB)

This three year, Health Research Board (HRB) funded project led by Prof. Richard Layte from the ESRI and Prof. Dermot O’Reilly from Queen’s University Belfast investigates the mechanisms through which parental socio-economic position influences the health and development of their children using comparative longitudinal data on children from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Studies from Ireland and elsewhere show that a child’s weight at birth and subsequent experience of chronic illness are strongly influenced by the income, education and social class of their parents. Similarly, family background is also an important determinant of a child’s educational attainment. This project investigates the main mechanisms through which health and educational development are influenced by parental characteristics and whether child health can itself shape a child’s educational outcomes. The comparison of data from the Republic of Ireland (the ‘Growing Up in Ireland’ study) and Northern Ireland (the ‘Millennium Cohort Study’) means that the study will be able to investigate the way in which child outcomes are mediated by institutional factors such as the social welfare, education and health systems in the two jurisdictions. The study will examine the influence of parent’s on both physical health and mental and emotional well-being and the interaction of these factors on psychological adjustment and educational attainment.

The Second Irish Study of Contraception and Crisis Pregnancy

Researchers

Watson,Dorothy / Layte,Richard

In September 2004 the Crisis Pregnancy Agency published the final report of the first Irish study of Contraception and Crisis Pregnancy (ICCP). This project was carried out by a consortium of researchers from the ESRI and the Royal College of Surgeon’s in Ireland (PIs were Prof. Hannah McGee and Prof. Richard Layte). The aim of the ICCP study was to establish nationally representative data on current attitudes, knowledge and experience of contraception, crisis pregnancy and related services in Ireland. More specifically, the research aimed to provide nationally representative data on:
• current attitudes, knowledge and experience of crisis pregnancy and crisis
• pregnancy supports and services
• current attitudes, knowledge and experience of contraception and contraceptive
• services
• current attitudes and experiences of sex, crisis pregnancy, options facing those
• in crisis pregnancy and lifestyle choices
• current awareness, recognition and understanding of the Crisis Pregnancy
• Agency's Positive Options public information campaign.

The second ICCP study will examine the extent of change in the areas listed above over the seven years since the first study and shed light on additional issues that were not included in the first study. Hannah McGee (RCSI) and  Karen Morgan (RCSI) will work with ESRI researchers Dorothy Watson and Richard Layte on this project.

The Special Class Model in Ireland: How is it working for pupils with special educational needs in mainstream schools?

Researchers

Banks,Joanne / McCoy,Selina / Watson,Dorothy / Frawley,Denise

This joint study between researchers at the ESRI and Trinity College Dublin (Michael Shevlin and Fiona Smyth), offers an important contribution to special educational needs research in Ireland. Previous Irish research has highlighted the need for accurate data on this group of children and the difficulties around interpreting administrative data sources on the number of special classes and children in special classes. This study, funded by the National Council for Special Education, seeks to address these difficulties by providing:

- a review of international literature on special classes
- an overview of the special class model in Ireland
- a national census of schools to establish the nature and extent of special class provision in Ireland
- a more in-depth longitudinal study which examines the experiences, progress and outcomes of students placed in special classes.

Gathering data of this kind will provide valuable empirical evidence for policy makers and researchers and make a major contribution to the debates around special education in Ireland.

Towards a Green Net National Product for Ireland

Researchers

Morgenroth,Edgar / Lyons,Seán / Walsh,Sharon / Pentecost,Anne / Curtis,John

A newly EPA-funded project will work towards estimating the Green Net National Product for the Republic of Ireland. The Green Net National Product corrects the Net National Product, a measure of economic welfare, for environmental pollution and degradation of natural resources. The project will update the ESRI Environmental Accounts and extend them to include more emissions and resources. It will regularly provide projections of the Environmental Accounts for future years, using the HERMES and ISus models. The national Environmental Accounts will be extended to regions and income classes. The project will estimate the expenditures on environmental protection.

Turning Globalisation to National Advantage: Economic Policy Lessons from Ireland’s Experience

Researchers

Traistaru-Siedschlag,Iulia / Fitz Gerald,John / Haller,Stefanie / Schiffbauer,Marc

This joint TCD/ESRI research project is funded from the Government of Ireland Thematic Research Project Grants Scheme administered by the Irish Council for the Humanities and Social Sciences (IRCHSS).

Professor Patrick Honohan, TCD is the Principal Investigator. Professor John Fitz Gerald, ESRI, Professor Frank Barry, TCD, and Dr Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag, Senior Research Officer, ESRI, are Associate Investigators.

Ireland is the most globalised economy in the world, and has consolidated this position over the past two decades, during which aggregate living standards in Ireland suddenly managed to converge to those of the world’s leading economies. This research project will clarify how the forces of globalization influenced the Irish economy and how Ireland managed to cope. Ireland’s successful navigation through the hazards of the emergent global economy have policy lessons for countries that have found globalisation more of a challenge.

The central research questions fall into five strands:

(i) FDI: how far can productivity growth and the use of new technology in manufacturing and service firms in Ireland be attributed to the direct or indirect effects of inward FDI?
(ii) Aid: What characteristics of the institutional arrangements for managing the inflow of foreign aid (EU structural funds) contributed to their effective management and what light does this throw on political economy theories of agency problems in making aid effective?
(iii) Capital markets: How far have international capital markets limited the policy space available for Irish fiscal and monetary policy, or have they enhanced the ability of policymakers to deliver good competitiveness, growth and stability outcomes?
(iv) Labour market openness: What effect has the reversal of international labour market flows had on productivity, the level and structure of wages and unemployment?
(v) Transferability: How might the lessons of Ireland’s experience with globalisation be transferred to other countries with very different institutional structures?

Work, Family and the Recession

Researchers

Russell,Helen / McGinnity,Frances / Watson,Dorothy / Martina Dieckhoff (WZB) / Duncan Gallie (Oxford) / Vanessa Gash (Manchester) / Javier Polavieja (Madrid) / Nadia Steiber (Florence) / Michael Tahlin (SOFI) / Ying Zhou (Surrey)

This multi-national project, coordinated by Professor Duncan Gallie, University of Oxford, investigates the issue of how the “great recession” has affected the quality of work and quality of life across Europe. The project team designed a special questionnaire module which was part of the European Social Survey (ESS) 2010. The survey was fielded in 28 countries and data is already available for 20 countries. The questionnaire design work was supported by the EQUALSOC network and the ESS central team at City University, London.

The project team is currently preparing a book manuscript for Oxford University Press, with financial support from the British Academy. The ESS module ‘Work, Family and Well-Being: the Implications of Economic Recession’ is a partial repeat of the 2004 module ‘Family, Work and Well-Being’, and enables the team of analysts to investigate the implications of economic change for the experience of work and the labour market; work-family reconciliation and social integration and social cohesion. Topics include: skill change and wage inequality; continuing training; control and representation; work intensity and work stress; job insecurity; work-life conflict; work motivation, social cohesion and subjective well-being. A significant part of the analysis focuses on people’s experiences of the recession, and explores how far institutional variations empirically mediate the social consequences of economic crisis.