New ESRI Research Highlights the Volatility of Irish Quarterly Macroeconomic Data

A Research Note, published today (Thursday, 28 May 2015), illustrates the volatility in Irish quarterly macroeconomic data.

"Irish Quarterly Macroeconomic Data, A Volatility Analysis", by Niall Conroy, a researcher at the ESRI, highlights the difficulties faced by forecasters and policymakers when examining changes in the Quarterly National Accounts

The Quarterly National Accounts released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) provide the most comprehensive estimates of Irish economic activity. However, this Research Note highlights the volatility in quarter to quarter changes in GDP and GNP. The measured volatility reflects both the underlying volatility in the Irish economy, but also the difficulty in measuring economic output in a small open economy.

Commenting on the analysis, Niall Conroy, the author, said “Today’s Note shows that the volatility in quarterly GNP and GDP in Ireland is amongst the highest in the OECD. We can also see that the high levels of volatility are evident in several sectors of the economy, particularly those with a strong multi-national corporation presence.”

Niall Conroy continued, "While the rate of volatility in quarterly GNP and GDP has been highlighted previously, we can see that volatility is at its highest at potential turning points in the economy. This highlights the difficulties faced by forecasters and policymakers when examining changes in the Quarterly National Accounts.”

 

For further Information please contact:

Niall Conroy, Resarch Assistant, The Economic and Social Research Institute    

Email: niall.conroy@esri.ie, 

1.This Research Note is part of the Quarterly Economic Commentary (QEC) Winter 2014 . The QEC includes the following Research Notes* and Special Article**:

  • "Irish Quarterly Macroeconomic Data, A Volatility Analysis", by Niall Conroy, to be published 28 May 2015
  • “The KBC Bank/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index”, by David Duffy, Ciara Morley and Dorothy Watson.
  • “Standard Variable Rate (SVR) Pass-Through in the Irish Mortgage Market: An Updated Assessment”, by Kieran McQuinn and Ciara Morley.
  • “Problems Interpreting National Accounts in a Globalised Economy – Ireland”, by John FitzGerald, Special Article in the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2015.

2.The Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2015, will be published at 00.01am on Wednesday, 10 June 2015.

 

*Research Notes are short papers on focused research issues. They are subject to refereeing prior to publication.
**Special Articles are published in the QEC in order to foster high-quality debate on various aspects of the Irish economy and Irish economic policy. They are subject to refereeing prior to publication. More information on Special Articles.