Spatial Economic and Demographic Modelling

Authors: Edgar Morgenroth , Abian Garcia Rodriguez

Research Areas: Energy and Environment


The research conducted under this programme seeks to establish a set of robust metrics at the sub-national level in relation to population change and economic development so that future spatial development scenarios can be compared and tested against each other and against key environmental, social, economic, infrastructural and planning indicators at a strategic level. The research will support the development of an evidence base that can be used in developing the National Planning Framework (NPF) and Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies (RSESs) that will replace the National Spatial Strategy (NSS) and Regional Planning Guidelines (RPGs). Key aspects will include the development of economic and demographic scenarios based on past trends and the generation of a range of future spatial development scenarios. These future scenarios will need to be tested against a set of criteria such as feasibility with respect to underlying infrastructure and environmental sustainability.
In particular the research will focus on modelling key variables that capture development trends at the sub-national level.

These include:
• Economic Output and Employment;
• Demographics and Labour Force;
• Commuting and Travel.

In addition the programme aims to model regional potential and the degree to which areas are performing relative to this potential.

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