Policies should aim to rebalance growth by encouraging regional development led by a small number of large urban centres outside Dublin, according to new ESRI research published today (24 January).
If the current pattern of growth continues, it will lead to a further gap in prosperity between Dublin and the rest of the country. In Dublin, it will lead to additional housing demand and increased long-distance commuting.
The research provides projections for regions and counties across Ireland up to the year 2040, examining what will happen if current spatial planning patterns continue, and what would happen in a range of alternative scenarios.
These projections set the context for regional and local development policy including the forthcoming National Planning Framework (NPF) and the Regional Spatial and Economic strategies.
Over-concentration in Dublin and Mid-East region
Projections show that if current trends continue, population growth, employment growth and jobs growth will be concentrated in Dublin and the mid-east of Ireland.
Developing second-tier cities
The research finds that the most positive outcomes would result from a scenario in which growth is split equally between the East and Midland region and the rest of the country. This would relieve pressure in the Dublin region, while still allowing significant growth.
Scaling up second-tier cities would provide a greater range of functions in surrounding areas. To achieve this, it is necessary to develop within the cities the necessary infrastructure, such as water and wastewater infrastructure, urban public transport, schools etc. It is essential that affordable housing and other amenities are provided in cities in order to attract people to live there and to avoid further sprawl. The increased scale of the second-tier cities would allow them and their wider hinterland to generate more start-up firms and attract more FDI.
Edgar Morgenroth, ESRI, commented: “When economic activity is concentrated in one centre, national economic performance is reduced. The lack of scale of the second-tier cities in Ireland reinforces the dominance of Dublin and limits the development potential of the other regions. Investing in second-tier cities is essential to ensure sustainable economic growth outside of Dublin.”
The ESRI works towards a national vision of ‘Informed policy for a better Ireland’. This means producing high-quality analysis to provide robust evidence for policymaking, with the goals of research excellence and policy impact.
The ESRI produces research that contributes to understanding economic and social change in the new international context and that informs public policymaking and civil society in Ireland.