Publication of ESRI Report – Projections of Demand for Healthcare in Ireland, 2015-2030: First Report from the Hippocrates Model
Today (26 October) the ESRI published a new report providing annual projections of demand for public and private health and social care services in Ireland for the years 2015–2030. These projections are based on new ESRI projections for population growth, the first projections to be published based on the 2016 Census. The report contains the most comprehensive mapping of public and private activity in the Irish healthcare system to have been published.
The main findings of this report are that over the years 2015 to 2030:
From detailed analysis of healthcare services in the 2015 base year, the report finds that:
The additional demand projected in this report for the years to 2030 will give rise to demand for additional expenditure, capital investment and expanded staffing and will have major implications for capacity planning, workforce planning and training. Additional investment will be required in most forms of care to meet the needs of a rapidly growing and ageing population. The projected population growth will, however, also increase numbers at work and contribute to national income and the revenue base to fund healthcare.
Selected Detailed Findings
A range of projections is presented reflecting alternative assumptions about population growth, trends in health with longer life, and levels of unmet need or demand. The projections assume no change in models of care. Such changes could reduce projected demand growth in some sectors and increase projected demand growth in others.
Public hospital services
Private hospital services
GP and practice nurse services
Long-term and intermediate care
The report also provides projections for maternity services, public hospital Emergency Department and Outpatient services, pharmaceuticals, pharmacy consultations, home care packages, public health nursing, and public community therapy services.
Dr Maev-Ann Wren, ESRI Senior Research Officer and lead author, said: “This research shows that expansion will be required in most forms of care to meet the needs of a rapidly growing and ageing population”.
Commenting on the report, Simon Harris, TD, Minister for Health, said: “I have long been of the view that we need to increase capacity in our health services, but that this must be done in an evidence-based manner. I welcome the publication of this report, and the development of the underlying projection model upon which the analysis and findings are based. My Department’s collaboration with the ESRI, and the work already underway on the bed capacity review, signifies our commitment to integrate relevant, high-quality evidence into the fabric of our planning and decision making, so that we can create better health and social care services in the years and decades ahead.”
The ESRI works towards a national vision of ‘Informed policy for a better Ireland’. This means producing high-quality analysis to provide robust evidence for policymaking, with the goals of research excellence and policy impact.
The ESRI produces research that contributes to understanding economic and social change in the new international context and that informs public policymaking and civil society in Ireland.