ESRI Nowcast (as of 22 April 2025)

April 22, 2025

Macroeconomics
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ESRI MDD Nowcast

Highlights

  • As of April 22nd, the ESRI's 2025Q1 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 3% year-on-year, up 0.5% from last months estimate. This is the second estimate for 2025 and is based on January and February data only.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month’s nowcast show that strong output data contributed positively to the estimate.
  • On the other hand, weaker consumption data compared to the same period in 2024 had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 22/05/2025.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Complied by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.