New ESRI report projects significant increases in HSE primary and community care workforce requirements by 2040

A new Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report released today (19 May 2026) projects significant increases in HSE primary and community care workforce requirements, both nationally and regionally, in Ireland between 2022 and 2040.

The research, funded by the HSE, considers a range of scenarios reflecting different assumptions about population growth and ageing, as well as changes in the mix of workforce involved in delivering care. The services examined include audiology, dietetics, occupational therapy, physiotherapy, podiatry, speech and language therapy and public health and community nursing. In 2022, these services were delivered by a workforce of approximately 5,650 whole time equivalent (WTE) staff.

Key findings:

•    Driven by projected demographic change, particularly population ageing, workforce requirements for all staff categories examined are projected to increase substantially by 2040. 

•    The largest increases in workforce requirements are projected for services that currently focus on older people in the community, namely audiologists, occupational therapists, podiatrists and public health and community nurses, with average annual growth requirements of between 2.0 to 3.2 per cent to 2040.

•    For the remaining professions (dietitians, physiotherapists and speech and language therapists), average annual growth requirements are projected to range between 1.0 and 2.1 per cent to 2040.

•    Workforce projections are sensitive to assumptions regarding grade and skill mix. Across all services examined, skill mix assumptions had a substantial effect on projected requirements for advanced practice and clinical specialist roles.

•    For most services, the largest projected increases in workforce requirements are observed in regions located in the east of the country. 

•    Waiting lists could not be included in the modelling due to data limitations. However, separate analysis of waiting list pressures indicates that more staff would be needed to address existing backlogs.

Detailed findings (projected workforce requirements nationally, 2040):

•    An additional 30 to 34 audiologist whole time equivalents (WTE) are projected to be required by 2040, representing average annual growth of between 2.2 and 2.5 per cent.

•    An additional 70 to 90 dietitian WTEs are projected to be required by 2040, representing average annual growth of between 1.6 and 2.0 per cent.

•    An additional 300 to 383 occupational therapist WTEs are projected to be required by 2040, representing average annual growth of between 2.0 and 2.5 per cent.

•    An additional 242 to 315 physiotherapist WTEs are projected to be required by 2040, representing average annual growth of between 1.6 and 2.1 per cent.

•    An additional 58 to 66 podiatrist WTEs are projected to be required by 2040, representing average annual growth of between 2.9 and 3.2 per cent.

•    An additional 117 to 208 speech and language therapist WTEs are projected to be required by 2040, representing average annual growth of between 1.0 and 1.6 per cent.

•    An additional 2,075 to 2,231 public health and community nurse WTEs are projected to be required by 2040, representing average annual growth of between 3.0 and 3.1 per cent.

•    Growth requirements for healthcare assistants and health and social care assistants broadly mirror those of the associated nursing and health and social care professions.

This report shows that population growth and ageing will be major drivers of increased workforce requirements for HSE primary and community care staff, with projections also being sensitive to assumptions about future workforce mix. While current data limitations mean projections will need to be updated as digital systems improve, the findings have clear implications for investment, Sláintecare delivery, and workforce planning.

Dr Aoife Brick, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI, and lead author of the report, said: 
“Our findings show that substantial expansion of the HSE Primary and Community Care workforce will be required across all regions and across all staff categories examined in this report. In the context of ongoing Sláintecare implementation, policymakers will need to consider how best to increase workforce supply, alongside measures to manage future service demand, to address these emerging pressures.”

Commenting on the report, Ms Anne Marie Hoey, Chief People Officer at the HSE, said:
“This second report, which focuses on projecting workforce requirements across a range of professions and grades in primary care, is a key output of our research partnership with the ESRI and supports the ongoing implementation of Health Regions under Sláintecare. The findings highlight important considerations for workforce investment, planning and training in the years ahead. Regionally based projections will strengthen our ability to plan services and make informed decisions about workforce needs and opportunities.

This research provides robust, evidence-based data that will support engagement with our funders and stakeholders, enabling the medium- and long-term planning required to ensure we have the workforce needed to deliver care. In parallel, the HSE is already working closely with the Department of Health and other government partners to develop solutions to grow the domestic workforce. Further reports covering other community services are currently in development.”

Minister for Health, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill TD said:
“We have a growing and ageing population and demand for health and social care services is increasing. I welcome the ESRI’s report which demonstrates the projected increases in HSE primary and community care workforce requirements out to 2040. Sláintecare is working to build a health and social care service that is sustainable for the future. Increasing capacity, both in terms of workforce and infrastructure, along with productivity measures is key to address Ireland’s long-term demographic challenges. These projections support our planning efforts to build capacity by understanding future workforce requirements to meet the needs of our people.”