Nowcast (as of 15 April)

April 16, 2026

Macroeconomics
ESRI MDD Nowcast


Highlights

  • As of April 16th, the ESRI's 2026Q1 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 4.2% year-on-year, down 0.4% from last month's estimate. This is the second nowcast of 2026Q1 based on data from January and February.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month's nowcast show that industrial production output, housing and tax revenue data contributed positively to the estimate.
  • On the other hand consumption, labour, financial, price and sentiment data had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 14/05/2026.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Compiled by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.