Nowcast (as of 15 October)

October 16, 2025

Macroeconomics
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ESRI MDD Nowcast


Highlights

  • As of October 15th, the ESRI's 2025Q3 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 3.7% year-on-year, down 0.3% from last months estimate of 4.0%. This is the second estimate for 2025Q3 and is based on July and August's data.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month’s nowcast show that industrial production output and housing were the main positive contributors to the estimate.
  • On the other hand labour, consumption and survey data had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 19/11/2025.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Compiled by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.