Nowcast (as of 18 December 2025)

December 18, 2025

Macroeconomics
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ESRI MDD Nowcast


Highlights

  • As of December 17th, the ESRI's 2025Q4 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 3.8% year-on-year. This is the first estimate for 2025Q4 and is based on October data only.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month’s nowcast show that industrial production output, housing and prices were the main positive contributors to the estimate.
  • On the other hand consumption, fiscal and survey data had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 20/01/2026.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Compiled by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.