Nowcast (as of 19 February 2026)

Highlights

• As of February 18th, the ESRI's 2025Q4 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 4.5% year-on-year. This is up on the 4.3% estimate from last month and is the final nowcast of 2025Q4 based on data from October, November and December.
• Decomposing the key drivers of this month's nowcast show that industrial production output, consumption, housing, fiscal and price data contributed positively to the estimate.
• On the other hand labour and financial data had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 19/03/2026.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Compiled by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.