Nowcast (as of 21 August 2025)

August 21, 2025

Macroeconomics
ESRI MDD Nowcast

Highlights

  • As of August 20th, the ESRI's 2025Q2 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 3.8% year-on-year, up 0.2% from last month's estimate. This is the third and final estimate for 2025Q2 and is based on April, May and June data.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month’s nowcast show that output, housing, tax, labour and survey data contributed positively to the estimate.
  • On the other hand financial and consumption data had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 18/09/2025.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Complied by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.