Nowcast (as of 30 June 2025)

June 30, 2025

Macroeconomics
ESRI MDD Nowcast

Highlights

  • As of June 30th, the ESRI's 2025Q2 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 3.1% year-on-year. This is the first estimate for 2025Q2 and is based on data from April only.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month’s nowcast show that output, labour, sentiment, price, housing and tax data contributed positively to the estimate.
  • On the other hand financial and weaker consumption data compared to the same period in 2024 had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 17/07/2025.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Complied by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.