ESRI Nowcast (December 2023 Estimate)

February 23, 2024
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  • Using data available to 21st February 2024, we provide an update to our monthly estimate of modified domestic demand (MDD) using the ESRI’s Nowcasting model currently employed to support the forecasting exercise in the Quarterly Economic Commentary.
  • We estimate that MDD grew 3.7% year-on-year in December 2023.  This is up from the 2.5% estimate for November.  December saw strong growth in residential property prices as well as an increase in industrial production across several sectors compared to 12 months ago.  On the other hand, tightening of financial conditions relative to December 2022 put downward pressure on our monthly estimate.
  • Based on a complement of data from October, November and December, our nowcast estimates MDD for 2023Q4 to be 2.9% above its level in 2022Q4.