ESRI Forecasting Series

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2018

This report has been peer reviewed prior to publication. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.

March 22, 2018
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In 2018, GDP is expected to grow by 4.8 per cent, according to the latest ESRI economic forecast. GDP will grow by 3.9 per cent in 2019 based on a technical assumption that a European Economic Agreement (EEA) is in place between the UK and the EU. Strong domestic consumption and investment, along with improving international conditions, are the main factors underpinning this growth. Unemployment averaged 6.7 in 2017 and is expected to decline to 5.4 per cent in 2018 and 4.5 per cent in 2019. Increased tax revenue will lead to budget surpluses in 2018 and 2019.