ESRI June 2024 Newsletter

Dear Reader,

Ireland is facing a double challenge: a broader, mainstream challenge about housing in general, and a more specific challenge around developing capacity to manage inward migration. This was put into sharp focus in our report published this month titled Access to autonomous housing for beneficiaries of International Protection in Ireland. It found that many refugees are struggling to move out of government-provided accommodation into autonomous housing. The barriers faced by this group include shortages in the supply of social and affordable housing, as well as language barriers and discrimination.

Also on the housing front, our report Population projections, the flow of new households and structural housing demand generated a notable amount of interest. International migration is the key driver of population growth in Ireland and this research considers how the population will grow under a range of international migration scenarios. It then combines these population projections with a range of assumptions around household size and housing stock obsolescence rates. It found that between 35,000 and 53,000 housing units are needed per year. However, it is important to distinguish these figures from total housing demand, which also includes 'pent-up' demand.

Our Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2024 found a persistent pace of growth in the domestic economy. Indeed, for the first time in two years, Irish households will see an increase in real wages in 2024 and 2025. It also noted that the labour market is operating at full capacity, with limited potential for further growth without inward migration.

Lastly, Minister Paschal Donohoe TD delivered the Opening Address at our Budget Perspectives 2025 conference. Here, we launched two papers related to Ireland’s State Pension reform. The first paper examines the reforms proposed by the Roadmap of Increases to Pay Related Social Insurance (PRSI). The second paper examines the winners and losers from the transition from the ‘Yearly Average Method’ to a ‘Total Contributions Approach’.

In a world where the lines between facts and opinion are becoming increasingly blurred, I trust that our research can offer a valuable evidence base for policymakers. Thank you for your continued support.


A close-up of a signatureDescription automatically generated

Professor Alan Barrett