ESRI Newsletter September 2025

September 30, 2025

Dear Reader,

Our latest Quarterly Economic Commentary forecasts that the Irish economy will continue to perform robustly with growth in consumption, employment, and tax receipts. However, with Budget 2026 approaching, it points to a clear need for a tighter fiscal stance, in part to avoid the economy overheating. Addressing bottlenecks in housing and infrastructure is challenging at full employment, and expenditure needs to be targeted and sequenced to address these constraints.

We also published our fifth annual Poverty, income inequality and living standards in Ireland report, produced in partnership with Community Foundation Ireland. I was particularly struck by its finding that 1-in-5 children in Ireland live in families below the poverty line when housing costs are accounted for. Child poverty rates have not changed in recent years, showing little change from levels seen from 2007 to 2009 when the financial crisis was unfolding. These findings underscore the need for additional policy measures in the Budget to achieve commitments to reduce child poverty rates.

Also on the Budget front, our annual and always highly anticipated Post-Budget Briefing will take place at the ESRI on 10th October. We will present the macroeconomic context and explore how Budget 2026 will affect households at different income levels.

Lastly, as the ESRI relies on our sponsors, patrons, and corporate members to support our research work, I am delighted to report that RSA Insurance Ireland and Clare County Council have recently joined the Institute as corporate members.

Regards,