New ESRI research finds need for family care in Ireland is projected to rise by at least 49% by 2040

New research published today by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) projects that the need for family care in Ireland will increase by at least 49% by 2040, driven by population ageing. The report, funded by the Department of Health, examines the characteristics of family carers and care recipients living in the community, as well as future need for family care.

Key findings

Demographic change

Ireland’s population is growing and ageing. Between 2022 and 2040, the population aged 65–84 years is projected to increase by almost 60 per cent, while the population aged 85 years and over is projected to more than double.

Family carers

•    Family carers play a central role in Ireland’s long-term care system; data from Census 2022 shows that almost 300,000 people provided regular unpaid help or support to a family member or friend, equivalent to 6 per cent of the population.
•    Women and those aged 45–64 are most likely to provide family care. However, older carers tend to provide more hours of care per week on average than younger carers.  

Recipients of care 

•    Receipt of family care increases with age and is more common among women. 6% of those aged 70-74 reported receiving family care, compared to 43% of those aged 85+.
•    A substantial proportion of older people reporting difficulties managing basic personal care (Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) such as dressing and bathing) or carrying out tasks needed for independent living (Instrumental Activities of Daily Living(IADLs) such as cooking and shopping) do not receive any care. While not all of these individuals require assistance, for some this may indicate unmet need.

Projections of need for care

•    In 2022, an estimated 123,802 people aged 50 and over received family care. This number is projected to increase by 49 to 58 per cent by 2040. 
•    If people not currently in receipt of care but experiencing difficulties with ADLs/IADLs are included in the projection of need for care,  then the projected number of people requiring care would more than double.   
•    Population ageing is the main driver of the projected increases in care need, followed by population growth. Assumptions about healthy ageing could offset some of the projected increase but not remove the underlying pressure  from population ageing.

Policy Implications

Family care remains the bedrock of care in Ireland, and a key question for policymakers is how this additional need for care can be met and whether it will come from family or formal (paid professionals) sources, or a combination of both.

Policy interventions should aim to ensure there is sufficient support (both financial and otherwise) available so that the type and intensity of care provided is a meaningful choice for family carers and appropriate for the needs of the care recipient. Given the scale  of the projected increases in demand for family care , it is likely that some of the additional need will require an increase in formal services.

Commenting on the findings, report author Sheelah Connolly said:

“Family care is already a central part of Ireland’s long-term care system. The findings show that demographic change will place increasing pressure on both family carers and formal care services over the coming years. Policy will need to consider how best to support family carers while also ensuring that sufficient formal services are available to meet growing need."

Minister of State for Older People and Housing, Kieran O’Donnell T.D., said:

“I welcome this ESRI report which highlights the growing care needs that will arise as Ireland's population ages. Family carers make an invaluable contribution, supporting older people to live independently and with dignity in their homes and communities. The report’s findings reinforce the need to continue strengthening both support for family carers and the availability of community-based and formal care services.

“This important research will help inform planning by the Department of Health and across Government, with the HSE and community and voluntary partners, to ensure our health and social care system can respond to the challenges we face in meeting future need."