Nowcast (as of 17 June)

June 18, 2026

ESRI MDD Nowcast

Highlights

  • As of June 17th, the ESRI's 2026Q2 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 3.7% year-on-year. This is the first nowcast of 2026Q2 based on data from April only.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month's nowcast show that consumption, housing and price data contributed positively to the estimate.
  • On the other hand financial, tax revenue, labour, output and sentiment data had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 16/07/2026.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Compiled by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.