New ESRI review finds additional measures may be required to meet residential decarbonisation goals

March 10, 2026

Energy and Environment
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Ireland's progress towards decarbonising residential heating is significantly behind targets set in the Climate Action Plan, with deep retrofits and heat pump installations reaching just 11.5% and 3.5% of 2030 goals by the end of 2024, according to a new evidence review by the ESRI.

Projections from recent trends suggest that retrofits are unlikely to meet targeted numbers, even with accelerated deployment. Additionally, Building Energy Rating (BER) metrics may mis-specify emissions cuts, because they are based on predicted rather than actual energy use.

Other key findings include:

  • Barriers to uptake include high capital costs, disruption, behavioural barriers, and split incentives in rentals. Furthermore, over 40% of homeowners report no interest in changes to their home’s properties or layout.
  • Actual energy consumption has been found to vary little between BER ratings (around 10,800kWh/year on average). This means that energy efficiency investments may deliver smaller emissions savings in practice than originally expected. This is explained by households increasing their energy use when the home becomes easier to heat, and by deviations from optimal use of technologies and dwelling characteristics.
  • Supplementary policies may be required in addition to retrofitting to meet our decarbonisation objectives. The benefits and disadvantages of potential options are reviewed. These include switching those who use oil and solid fuels to lower-carbon options; targeted grant supports; and automated demand flexibility via smart controls/thermal storage.

Dr Muireann Lynch, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI, said: “This review synthesises the empirical evidence on residential heat decarbonisation progress and challenges in Ireland. It highlights substantial shortfalls in delivery and discrepancies in performance metrics to date. In this context, additional policy measures may warrant consideration.”

Dr Niall Farrell, Associate Research Professor at the ESRI, added: “The study examines barriers to retrofit uptake and tracks progress in deployment. Projected trends point to a likely shortfall in emissions savings relative to climate objectives. Drawing on multiple data sources and recent studies, the analysis highlights key evidence gaps that are crucial for tracking real-world outcomes against climate targets.”