Mental models of climate policy among the public

A central challenge for climate policy is to select effective climate mitigation measures that maintain prosperity and wellbeing. To picture and reason about such complex problems, cognitive psychology shows that people use ‘mental models’. Thus, if citizens possess mental models of the climate policy problem, this will affect how they view climate policies. This study reveals that people do, indeed, have mental models that connect the main elements of the problem. Using a nationally representative public sample (n=1,200), we measure patterns of causal relationships that people perceive between four main elements: climate change, climate policy, economic growth, and health and wellbeing. We find that people not only perceive coherent relationships between these elements, they report confidence in their answers and will give high accuracy ratings when shown diagrams of their model constructed from their responses. However, mental models vary substantially across participants, with disagreement on most relationships. Association tests and cluster analysis do not identify recognisable patterns. Hence, while the results reveal an average mental model of the climate policy problem, there is neither a dominant model nor a clear set of contrasting models. These findings challenge common assumptions about how citizens will evaluate proposed policies, while suggesting opportunities to influence mental models through evidence. They also inform public debates on degrowth and green growth.