New ESRI report projects that demand for GP consultations will increase by at least 23 per cent by 2040

June 18, 2025

Health and Quality of Life
See Publication

A new Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report released today (18 June 2025), projects that the demand for General Practitioner (GP) consultations will increase by at least 23 per cent by 2040, reflecting continued increases in the population. The research, funded by the Department of Health, also produced projections of demand for General Practice Nurses. The report considers a range of scenarios based on varying assumptions about population growth and ageing, the pace of healthy ageing, and policy reforms.  

Key findings:

Population change

The rising demand for General Practice services is largely driven by population growth and, to a lesser extent, population ageing. Ireland’s population is projected to increase from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 and 6.3 million by 2040, with the range reflecting differing assumptions on future migration trends. The proportion of the population aged under 25 will decrease while the proportion aged 50 and over will increase. While all age groups use general practice services, utilisation tends to increase with age.

Demand and workforce requirements

  • GP consultations are projected to grow from 19.4 million in 2023 to between 23.9 million and 25.2 million by 2040, growth of between 23 and 30 per cent.
  • Requirements for an additional 943 to 1,211 GPs by 2040 are projected, relative to a 2023 headcount of 3,928 GPs.
  • General Practice Nurse consultations are projected to grow from 5.7 million in 2023 to between 7.5 million and 7.8 million by 2040, growth of between 32 and 36 per cent.
  • Requirements for an additional 761 to 868 General Practice Nurses by 2040 are projected, relative to a 2023 headcount of 2,288 GPNs.

Policy implications

A key component of the Sláintecare reform proposals was the re-orientation of the model of care towards primary and community settings. Reflecting these aspirations, a number of reforms have been implemented in general practice in recent years, including the extension of GP visit cards to children under eight years of age and to those below the median income, as well as the development of the chronic disease management programme. While it is anticipated that such reforms may reduce pressures on the hospital sector in the medium term, they will inevitably increase the demand for general practice services in the coming years; increases which come in addition to the significant increase in demand arising from a growing and ageing population.

Dr Sheelah Connolly, Associate Research Professor at the ESRI and lead author of the report, said: "Our findings highlight significant future growth in demand for general practice services, driven primarily by population growth and ageing. The report offers policymakers evidence on the scale of workforce expansion needed to meet future demand."

Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill said: “This analysis from the ESRI provides valuable insights into the interaction between our growing and ageing population and the demand for care from general practice. It will inform the Government's efforts to collaborate with general practice to enhance its capacity as a core component of healthcare delivery in Ireland.”