Overestimating immigration linked to negative attitudes

Many people believe immigration is happening on a larger scale than it really is and this misperception is strongly associated with negative attitudes to immigration, according to new research by the Economic and Social Research Institute. 

The study, funded by the Department of Justice, Home Affairs and Migration, involved an anonymous online survey of 1,200 adults, representative of the national population. As well as measuring attitudes, the survey asked participants to estimate key facts about immigration, including population size, reasons for migration and migrant characteristics such as employment and education levels, social housing uptake and share of the prison population. 

The results reveal that the majority of people in Ireland overestimate the number of migrants living in Ireland and that this misperception is large. On average, people estimate that 28% of the population was born abroad, when the highest official figure is 22%. They also estimate that 14% were born outside the EU, UK and North America, almost double the true figure of 8% of the population. 

People also misjudge why migrants come to Ireland. The average guess is that less than 20% of recent non-EU migrants came for work or education, when the true figure is almost 50%. Although people accurately estimated that close to 28% of recent non-EU migrants arrived from Ukraine, they also guessed that a further 20% arrived seeking international protection (i.e., asylum) from other countries. The true figure is closer to 10%. 

Similarly, people underestimate the education levels and employment rates of immigrants, while overestimating both the likelihood that immigrants live in social housing and the proportion of immigrants in the prison population.

These misperceptions matter. The study found that the people who hold more inaccurate beliefs are also significantly more likely to feel negatively about immigration and to cite it as a major national issue. Overestimating the share of migrants seeking asylum and underestimating migration for work and education have the strongest association with negative attitudes.

While most people in Ireland continue to hold broadly positive attitudes toward immigration, the findings highlight the potential for misperceptions to distort public debate and increase vulnerability to misinformation. The report suggests that the focus on asylum seekers in public discourse and media coverage may contribute to these biases.

“An informed debate about issues like immigration requires shared understanding of the facts,” said Dr Shane Timmons, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI and lead author of the report. “While most people do not hold negative attitudes toward immigration, those who do tend to strongly underestimate migrants’ economic contribution. In reality, there are fewer migrants living in Ireland than people think and far more come for work and education than people believe.”