QEC Special Article

Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios

This QEC Special Article was subject to refereeing prior to publication. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.

March 26, 2019
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A new study from the ESRI and the Department of Finance examines the impact of three Brexit scenarios on the Irish economy.  The study finds that GDP in Ireland ten years after Brexit will be around 2.6% lower in a Deal scenario, 4.8% lower in a No-Deal scenario and 5.0% lower in a Disorderly No-Deal scenario respectively, compared to a situation where the UK stays in the EU.