ESRI Forecasting Series

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2021

This report has been peer reviewed prior to publication. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.

March 25, 2021
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A video presentation of the report findings, plus slides, can be accessed via the link above.

In light of the current level-5 restrictions, we have revised down our 2021 forecasts from the 2020 Winter Commentary. We now assume that the lockdown measures that commenced on the 30 December 2020 will last until at least the 5 April 2021 and that there will be a gradual easing of restrictions thereafter. We also assume that the vaccination programme will facilitate the broad relaxation of public health restrictions in the second half of 2021 and that there will not be another full Level 5 lockdown towards the end of the year. Under these assumptions, we expect Irish GDP to increase by 4.4 per cent in the present year. We also outline our first set of forecasts for 2022 with output expected to increase by 5.2 per cent.