ESRI Forecasting Series

Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2021

This report has been peer reviewed prior to publication. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.

June 24, 2021
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The Irish economy is expected to record substantial growth in 2021 as public health measures are lifted. Assuming the continued easing of public restrictions and vaccine delivery rolls out as planned, we expect GDP to increase growth by just over 11 per cent in the present year. The strong performance of the Irish export sector is driving much of this growth. Exports grew by 17 per cent in the first quarter of 2021 year-on-year and, while trade disruptions due to Brexit are likely to impact specific sectors, overall exports are still expected to grow 13.3 per cent for the year as a whole. Domestic demand is also expected to rebound strongly. As the economy reopens, we expect consumption to grow by 7.5 per cent in the present year. Like consumption, investment is expected to grow significantly throughout the latter half of 2021 as economic activity resumes, growing by 5.8 per cent overall.