The Hippocrates Model was developed at the ESRI in a programme of research funded by the Department of Health. The Model provides base year estimates and projections of healthcare demand, capacity and expenditure for selected Irish health and social care services.
The model's development team includes:
ESRI Research Series
New research from the ESRI provides projections of expenditure for public acute hospital and adult acute psychiatric in-patient services in Ireland for the years 2018–2035. These projections are based on new ESRI projections for population and economic growth, both of which consider the impact of COVID-19. A range of alternative projections are presented reflecting alternative assumptions about population growth, trends in health and life expectancy, policy change, and costs. The report contains the most comprehensive mapping of Irish public hospital expenditure to have been published.
This report provides annual projections of demand for public and private health and social care services in Ireland for the years 2015–2030. These projections are based on new ESRI projections for population growth, the first projections to be published based on the 2016 Census. The report contains the most comprehensive mapping of public and private activity in the Irish healthcare system to have been published.
ESRI Survey and Statistical Report Series
This report analyses the types of data available on dental and optical services in a community setting and considers how these might be incorporated into the Hippocrates Model. The Hippocrates Model provides estimates and projections of healthcare demand, capacity and expenditure for a range of Irish health and social care services.
The Hippocrates Model provides estimates and projections of public and private healthcare demand for a range of Irish health and social care services and has been extended to project capacity and expenditure for public hospital care. The first report from the Hippocrates Model, published in 2017, presented a baseline for projection based on data from 2015. This report updates that baseline analysis using 2018 data. Using a range of administrative data sources, the report provides age and sex utilisation profiles for public acute hospital services. It covers emergency department and outpatient department attendances, and day-patient and in-patient discharges.
Existing Irish hospital bed capacity is low by international standards while Ireland also reports the highest inpatient bed occupancy rate across OECD countries. Moreover, strong projected population growth and ageing is expected to increase demand for hospital care substantially by 2030. Reform proposals have suggested that increased investment and access to nonacute care may mitigate some increased demand for hospital care over the next number of years, and it is in this context that the Irish government has committed to increase the supply of public hospital beds by 2600 by 2027. Incorporating assumptions on the rebalancing of care to nonhospital settings, this paper analyses the capacity implications of projected demand for hospital care in Ireland to 2030.
ESRI Working Paper
Larger and longer waiting lists for public hospital appointments and treatment have been a significant challenge in Irish healthcare for decades. The issue has been further exacerbated by COVID-19 in 2020 with the cancellation of elective activity in public hospitals for several months. The aim of this analysis is to estimate the activity and expenditure required to clear the accumulated backlog and account for future service demand. We estimate that to clear the backlog of cases and keep pace with demand over a period of five years, additional expenditure excluding any associated capital costs of up to €1.1bn would be required.