Hippocrates Model

The Hippocrates Model was developed at the ESRI in a programme of research funded by the Department of Health. The Model provides base year estimates and projections of healthcare demand, capacity and expenditure for selected Irish health and social care services.
 

The model's development team includes:

Conor Keegan, Aoife Brick, Adele Bergin, Maev-Ann Wren, Brendan Walsh, Seán Lyons and Sheelah Connolly


ESRI Research Series

New research from the ESRI funded by the Department of Health projects expenditure for most primary, community, and long-term health and social care services in Ireland for the years 2019–2035. These projections take into account new ESRI population and macroeconomic projections that incorporate the expected impact of Covid-19. Expenditure projections incorporate a range of scenarios for changes in demographics, healthy ageing, policy measures, and costs.

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New research from the ESRI provides projections of expenditure for public acute hospital and adult acute psychiatric in-patient services in Ireland for the years 2018–2035. These projections are based on new ESRI projections for population and economic growth, both of which consider the impact of COVID-19. A range of alternative projections are presented reflecting alternative assumptions about population growth, trends in health and life expectancy, policy change, and costs. The report contains the most comprehensive mapping of Irish public hospital expenditure to have been published.

 

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This report provides annual projections of demand for public and private health and social care services in Ireland for the years 2015–2030. These projections are based on new ESRI projections for population growth, the first projections to be published based on the 2016 Census. The report contains the most comprehensive mapping of public and private activity in the Irish healthcare system to have been published.

 

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ESRI Survey and Statistical Report Series

This report analyses the types of data available on dental and optical services in a community setting and considers how these might be incorporated into the Hippocrates Model. The Hippocrates Model provides estimates and projections of healthcare demand, capacity and expenditure for a range of Irish health and social care services.

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The Hippocrates Model provides estimates and projections of public and private healthcare demand for a range of Irish health and social care services and has been extended to project capacity and expenditure for public hospital care. The first report from the Hippocrates Model, published in 2017, presented a baseline for projection based on data from 2015. This report updates that baseline analysis using 2018 data. Using a range of administrative data sources, the report provides age and sex utilisation profiles for public acute hospital services. It covers emergency department and outpatient department attendances, and day-patient and in-patient discharges.

 

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This report analyses available data on specialist mental health services in Ireland to establish a baseline for inclusion in the Hippocrates Model of Healthcare Demand and Expenditure.

 

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This report analyses available data on specialist disability services in Ireland to establish a baseline for inclusion in the Hippocrates Model of Healthcare Demand and Expenditure.

 

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Journal Articles

Existing Irish hospital bed capacity is low by international standards while Ireland also reports the highest inpatient bed occupancy rate across OECD countries. Moreover, strong projected population growth and ageing is expected to increase demand for hospital care substantially by 2030. Reform proposals have suggested that increased investment and access to nonacute care may mitigate some increased demand for hospital care over the next number of years, and it is in this context that the Irish government has committed to increase the supply of public hospital beds by 2600 by 2027. Incorporating assumptions on the rebalancing of care to nonhospital settings, this paper analyses the capacity implications of projected demand for hospital care in Ireland to 2030.

 

Article     Research Bulletin

 

ESRI Working Paper

Larger and longer waiting lists for public hospital appointments and treatment have been a significant challenge in Irish healthcare for decades. The issue has been further exacerbated by COVID-19 in 2020 with the cancellation of elective activity in public hospitals for several months. The aim of this analysis is to estimate the activity and expenditure required to clear the accumulated backlog and account for future service demand. We estimate that to clear the backlog of cases and keep pace with demand over a period of five years, additional expenditure excluding any associated capital costs of up to €1.1bn would be required. 
 

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This analysis examines the extent to which activity in public hospitals is privately financed and provides an overview of service delivery across public and private hospitals in Ireland in 2015. This analysis was conducted in light of a Sláintecare proposal to remove private practice from public hospitals and the establishment of an Independent Review group to examine this proposal in detail. Overall we find that just under 16 per cent of cases were privately financed in public hospitals in 2015. Across public and private hospitals, fewer than one-in-four private day patient episodes were estimated to have taken place in public hospitals. In comparison, over 50 per cent of private in-patient bed days were recorded in public hospitals. These findings suggest that the private hospital system appears to have primarily specialised in the delivery of elective care. It is unclear therefore whether the majority of private in-patients in public hospitals, who are emergency in-patients, could access the care they may require in private hospitals. It is acknowledged that a barrier to more detailed comparative analysis is the lack of a centralised administrative system to collect private hospital activity data.

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