ESRI Nowcast (as of 22 May)

May 22, 2025

Macroeconomics
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ESRI MDD Nowcast

Highlights

  • As of May 22nd, the ESRI's 2025Q1 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 3.1% year-on-year, up 0.1% from last months estimate. This is the final estimate for 2025Q1 and is based on all data from January, February and March.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month’s nowcast show that very strong output data contributed positively to the estimate.
  • On the other hand financial and weaker consumption data compared to the same period in 2024 had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 19/06/2025.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Complied by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.