ESRI researchers address the Committee on Infrastructure and National Development Plan Delivery
On 25 February 2026, ESRI Director Martina Lawless, alongside ESRI researchers Professor John Curtis, Dr Adele Bergin, Dr Sheelah Connolly and Dr Conor O’Toole, addressed the Committee on Infrastructure and National Development Plan Delivery.
They discussed the ESRI’s work on demographics, healthcare, and housing, focusing on how these insights relate to the delivery of the National Development Plan.
Read their Opening Statement
Let me begin by thanking the Chair for the invitation to the ESRI to appear before the Committee and for the opportunity to discuss ESRI work on demographics and on issues related to the delivery of the National Development Plan. I’m Professor Martina Lawless, Director of the ESRI, and I’m joined by my colleagues Professor John Curtis, Dr Adele Bergin, Dr Sheelah Connolly and Dr Conor O’Toole.
Ireland’s population has grown rapidly over the last twenty years – from 4.1 million in 2005 to an estimate of close to 5.5 million in 2025. To place this rate of growth in a broader context – the population across Europe has grown by approximately 4 percent over the last two decades while the Irish population has expanded by close to one-third. The number of people in employment has similarly increased by roughly one-third, from just under 2.1 million in 2005 to over 2.8 million in 2025. The challenge that the National Development Plan must address is that infrastructure in a broad sense has struggled to keep up with this rapid expansion of population and economic activity.
ESRI and CSO projections expect that the population will continue to grow over the next twenty years, although not at as rapid a pace. The ESRI baseline scenario sees Ireland’s population increase by about 1.2 million between 2022 and 2050, to over 6.4 million by the end of that projection period. This growth comes alongside substantial shifts in the age distribution of the population. The share of those aged 65 and over is expected to increase from around 15% in 2022 to about 25% by 2050. Meanwhile, the working age share (15–64) falls from 65% to roughly 59%. As a result, the old age dependency ratio almost doubles, meaning far fewer workers will be supporting each older person by mid century.
The greater size of the population is important for economic activity and demand for infrastructure, energy, housing and public services in general. The shift in age structure also has substantial implications because the balance between working age people and retirees influence economic growth, tax revenue, and demand for public services, particularly in the areas of health and social care services.
It is important to note that this population growth is not evenly distributed across regions. Projections indicate stronger growth in parts of the Eastern and Midland region, particularly Dublin and the surrounding commuter counties, driven by inward migration and labour market opportunities. In contrast, parts of the Western and Border regions are projected to experience slower population growth. This uneven demographic pattern has implications for infrastructure planning and prioritisation, as the scale, sequencing and composition of investment will vary across regions.
The National Development Plan sets out the key areas of priority for government investment up to the end of the decade to address the increased need for infrastructure and close the gap that has emerged as the population and economy have outgrown the existing levels of infrastructure in the country.
Housing demand is a particularly visible area where considerable public and private investment is required. Energy infrastructure requirements are similarly substantial, with annual labour requirements estimated at around 24,000 workers to meet renewable energy and energy efficiency targets. In transport, transformational change is required to shift from a car dependent system to one centred on sustainable mobility.
Healthcare faces pressure from both population ageing and strong demographic expansion. In 2025, the health team at the ESRI completed a body of work projecting demand and capacity requirements for a range of health and social care services to 2040. For each service examined, demand is projected to increase by at least 20 per cent. However, due to the ageing of our population, demand for services used predominantly by older people, will experience significantly higher increases. To give just one example, demand for nursing home beds is projected to increase by between 61 and 80 per cent, resulting in a need for over 23,000 additional beds by 2040. This increase in demand will be seen across all health regions.
In examining the ambitious objectives of the NPD, the ESRI has identified substantial potential challenges to its delivery. The economy currently faces considerable capacity constraints, particularly in the construction sector. With the economy currently operating at or close to full employment, the scope for significantly expanding the labour force domestically, in particular in the construction sector is likely to be limited. For example, achieving higher housing output or implementing large-scale energy infrastructure would require tens of thousands of additional full-time workers. Injecting additional public investment into such a constrained environment risks driving inflation, especially wage inflation in construction, while also pulling labour away from other productive sectors.
Our modelling work notes that inflationary effects of increased construction demand could be significant in the short-run. However, there is a potential trade-off as successful delivery of several NDP projects—particularly in housing and energy could reduce inflationary pressures in the medium term. For example, increased housing supply would lower rents and house prices, while investment in renewable energy would reduce exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices. Prioritisation and phasing of the investment will be an important element in minimising the immediate short-term risks to inflation while delivering on these longer-term priorities.
The recent publication of the Government’s Accelerating Infrastructure Taskforce report provides 30 actionable reform points to move the dial on infrastructure provision, including reforming and removing administrative blockages to infrastructure completion. The reforms suggested in this report are of the scale and magnitude needed to have meaningful structural change and remove administrative barriers to activity. Implementation of these reforms should be prioritised as a matter of urgency and these impacts are likely be beneficial on a cross sectoral basis.