Nowcast (as of 18 September 2025)

September 18, 2025

Macroeconomics
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ESRI MDD Nowcast

Highlights

  • As of September 18th, the ESRI's 2025Q3 nowcast estimates that MDD is growing at 4.2% year-on-year. This is first estimate for 2025Q3 and is based on July's data only.
  • Decomposing the key drivers of this month’s nowcast show that output, housing, tax, labour and price data contributed positively to the estimate.
  • On the other hand financial, consumption and survey data had a negative impact on the estimate.

Next expected update on 16/10/2025.

MDD is a measure of domestic economic activity in Ireland including spending by households, investment by enterprises and net spending by the government.

Nowcasting is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of the economy. The ESRI’s nowcast uses an econometric model with a series of real-time indicators to estimate MDD before the official CSO numbers are available.

Complied by Paul Egan (paul.egan@esri.ie) & Janez Kren (janez.kren@esri.ie). Based on: Egan, P. (2023) Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2711-2716.