Tánaiste and Minister for Finance launches the first ESRI annual economic survey of Ireland and Northern Ireland as part of the Shared Island research programme

The Tánaiste and Minister for Finance, Simon Harris TD, will launch a new report on 8 December by the ESRI, Assessing Economic Trends in Ireland and Northern Ireland.

This is the first report in a new annual ESRI series examining economic developments across the island of Ireland, published as part of the joint research programme between the ESRI and the Shared Island Unit in the Department of the Taoiseach. 

The report covers the following topics and data:

Economic Growth: In the year ending Q2 2025, Ireland’s Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) grew by 3.2%, while Northern Ireland’s output, as measured by the Northern Ireland Economic Composite Index (NIECI), increased by 2.8%.

Employment Trends: Employment increased in both jurisdictions in 2025 compared to 2024, with Ireland adding 63,900 jobs (a 2.3% annual increase) and Northern Ireland adding 20,640 jobs (a 2.5% annual increase) in the year ending Q2 2025.

Economic Forecasts: Forecasters expect moderate rates of economic growth in Northern Ireland this year and next, at just over 1% for each year. The corresponding forecasts for Modified Domestic Demand in Ireland range between 3.3 and 3.8% for 2025 and between 2.3 and 2.9% for 2026.

Demographics: Between 2015 and 2024, Ireland’s population grew by 14.8%, driven largely by strong net migration, while Northern Ireland’s population grew by 3.9%. Ireland has a younger population and a lower old-age dependency rate (23.6 vs. 28.6 in NI), suggesting more favourable long-term demographic conditions.

Labour Market Engagement: In 2024, Ireland had higher labour force participation (78.5%) and employment rates (75.1%) than Northern Ireland (75.7% and 74.3% respectively). However, Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate was lower (1.8% vs. 4.4% in Ireland), reflecting differences in labour market dynamics, including higher inactivity in NI (24.3% vs. 21.5%).

Living Standards: Ireland outperforms Northern Ireland across several measures of living standards. In 2023, GNI* per capita in Ireland was €63.5k, compared to €34.5k GDP per capita in Northern Ireland, a gap of 84%. Household disposable income per equivalised household was €36.9k in Ireland and €33.4k in NI in 2022, a 10.4% gap favouring Ireland. Hourly earnings were 29% higher in Ireland in 2024. Life expectancy is a key indicator reflecting the combined effects of income, education and access to health services. In 2022, it was 80.9 years for men and 84.2 years for women in Ireland, compared to 78.9 and 82.7 years in Northern Ireland, a gap of about 2 years for men and 1.5 years for women.

Policy: The context for economic policy-formation differs significantly between Ireland (a sovereign state) and Northern Ireland (a devolved jurisdiction). For example, the Northern Ireland Executive has very limited revenue raising powers or powers to use the tax system to further policy objectives. In spite of this, a review of the respective programmes for government (PfGs) in Ireland and Northern Ireland reveals some common themes. Productivity, competitiveness and decarbonisation are discussed in both PfGs. More generally, both PfGs reflect an eagerness to invest in R&D, support SMEs, enhance the skills base of the workforce and achieve these goals in a sustainable and equitable manner.

The report is the first in a planned annual series comparing the economies of Ireland and Northern Ireland. It builds on previous work under the joint research programme on Shared Island, and presents comparable data on both economies to assess economic trends across the island. Looking ahead, the series will provide an ongoing, evidence-based comparison of key indicators across the two jurisdictions, highlighting areas of convergence and divergence, and identifying data gaps that limit North/South analysis. 

By establishing this foundation, the report seeks to develop further joint understanding of the economies of Ireland and Northern Ireland in an effort to support policy development, inform future research, and encourage greater collaboration on shared challenges and opportunities across the island.

Launching the report, Tánaiste and Minister for Finance, Simon Harris TD, said: 

“I am delighted to launch the first in a new annual report series by the ESRI examining economic trends across the island of Ireland, as part of the Shared Island research programme.

The series will build up a crucial evidence base on economic similarities and differences, North and South, and help identify how we could cooperate more for mutual benefit, across a range of policy areas.

I congratulate the ESRI authors on the publication of this fascinating first report and look forward to seeing the series continue, develop and inform discussion on how we maximise economic development and opportunity for all across this island in the years ahead.”  

Commenting on the findings, co-author of the ESRI report, Alan Barrett said: “It is exciting to be starting this annual series tracking the economies of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Comparative studies across countries are a standard method for generating insights. Our goal is to assess over time how the two economies evolve and how policy is influencing those evolutions, always with a view to informing policy”.

Co-author of the ESRI report Adele Bergin added: “The report provides a contemporary analysis of the relative performance of both economies, and allows for differences between Ireland and Northern Ireland to be better understood.  Northern Ireland continues to show lower levels of disposable income compared to Ireland, and also lower levels of educational attainment, labour force participation and export intensity. However, the most recent data show comparable rates of employment growth in the year ending Q2 2025 (2.3% in Ireland and 2.5% in Northern Ireland).”