Assessing the labour market impact of the green transition in Ireland

This paper examines the potential labour market implications of the green transition in Ireland by analysing the incidence and nature of green and brown jobs. We find that the share of green employment in Ireland has been trending slightly upwards over time, increasing from 8 per cent of total employment in 2011 to 10 per cent in 2023. The share of brown jobs has remained relatively stable, with an estimated share of total employment in 2023 ranging from 3 to 5.5 per cent depending on the definition employed. At a sectoral level, green jobs are relatively broad-based while Agriculture and Transport account for the majority of brown jobs in Ireland. Regarding worker characteristics, we find that men are more likely than women to work in both green and brown jobs. The pay and education levels for workers in green jobs is higher compared to brown jobs. Overall, the analysis suggests that the aggregate impacts of the green transition on the labour market may be relatively limited. However, these impacts will not be evenly distributed across the population, with differences by gender, region, sector and educational attainment. These findings underscore the important role for policy in supporting the up-/re-skilling of workers to ensure a just transition.