Macroeconomics
Macroeconomic research aims to improve understanding of economic growth, the property market and the relationship between the macroeconomy and the financial sector. A major feature of macroeconomic research at the ESRI is the development and maintenance of a suite of economic models, including COSMO (COreStructuralMOdel).
This report examines the extent of cross-border trade in services on the island of Ireland and the characteristics of the firms participating in this trade. The main services traded include transportation and storage, business services and computer consultancy. The report aims to fill an information gap on the extent and structure of services trade where data is much more limited compared to the detailed information available on goods trade.
Although the Irish economy contracted in 2023 due to a decline in headline exports, we anticipate moderate growth in both headline and underlying indicators in 2024 and 2025. Therefore, 2024 is likely to see a closer alignment between headline indicators and those measuring domestic economic performance.
This outlook is supported by a positive international environment, quicker-than-expected disinflation, potential interest rate declines, and a robust labour market. We expect GDP, heavily influenced by the MNE sector, to grow by 2.5 per cent this year and 3.2 per cent in 2025.
The ESRI has produced a number of economic forecasts, including the Quarterly Economic Commentaries, Ireland's Economic Outlook and the Medium-Term Reviews.
Download research examining the potential impact of Brexit across areas including trade, economic growth and consumer prices.
This section includes ESRI work on the Irish housing market, including the RTB rent reports and research on house prices and affordability.
