Macroeconomics

Macroeconomic research aims to improve understanding of economic growth, the property market and the relationship between the macroeconomy and the financial sector. A major feature of macroeconomic research at the ESRI is the development and maintenance of a suite of economic models, including COSMO (COreStructuralMOdel).

people wearing masks walkiing down a street in a crowded urban area

Prudent government borrowing can mitigate inadequate housing supply and upward pressure on prices and rent

In this paper, we address the undersupply of residential housing. Given the recent, adverse impacts of pandemic-related public health restrictions on housing supply, we argue that a significant increase in the provision of publicly provided housing is now required to help bridge the growing gap between actual supply levels and the structural demand for housing.

Irish economy to recover quite strongly from restrictions but unemployment unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023 at the earliest

The average monthly unemployment rate in 2020 was 18.7 per cent. We expect the unemployment rate to average around 25 per cent in Q1 2021 and that it will be approximately 10 per cent by the end of the current year. Unemployment is set to fall further into 2022 and will average just over 7 per cent for the year. However, we do not expect to see the unemployment rate fall back to pre-COVID rates until late 2023 at the earliest.

Economic forecasts

The ESRI has produced a number of economic forecasts, including the Quarterly Economic Commentaries, Ireland's Economic Outlook and the Medium-Term Reviews.